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Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 50 – 2020)

Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 50 – 2020)

Thursday 17, 12 2020

Vietnam’s macro-economic overview


On the financial market, deposit and lending interest rates have reached the lowest level in recent years. Currently, the maximum short-term loan interest rate in VND for some loans is 4.5% / year. The decrease in lending interest rates and the launch of several preferential credit packages by commercial banks are the main factors that made credit growth in the last months of the year increase rapidly. 
Vietnam’s macro-economic overview
The recovery of the domestic economy continues to be an important factor that causes many major financial institutions in the world to make positive forecasts about Vietnam's GDP growth. In the latest report released on December 10, 2020, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) increased its forecast for Vietnam's economic growth in 2020 from 1.8% to 2.3%. At the same time, ADB also forecast that Vietnam's growth in 2021 would reach 6.1%. Meanwhile, ADB revised its growth forecast for the subregion for 2020 from minus 3.8% to minus 4.4%. In 2021, the regional GDP growth forecast is also expected to decrease from 5.5% to 5.2% due to the complicated developments of the pandemic.

Weekly financial - monetary situation and forecasts


Exchange rate

In the past week, the USD / VND exchange rate witnessed a decrease on the official market and an increase on the unofficial market. At VCB, compared to the previous week, the exchange rate of USD / VND decreased by 10 VND / USD (equivalent to a 0.04% decrease), to 23,010 VND / USD (buying side) and 23,220 VND / USD (selling side). Compared to the beginning of 2020, the USD / VND has decreased by 10 VND / USD. 

On the unofficial market, the USD / VND exchange rate increased sharply by 30 VND / USD on the buying side and increased by 40 VND / USD on the selling side, to 23,200 VND / USD and 23,240 VND / USD, respectively.

At the State Bank of Vietnam, the USD / VND exchange rate was stable at 23,125 VND / USD, which is 714 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price. Compared to the previous week, the USD exchange rate on the selling side decreased by 1 VND / USD to 23,790 VND / USD and was 50 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price.
Exchange rate
Meanwhile, the central exchanged rate announced by the State Bank applicable to December 10, 2020 was 23,146 VND / USD, down 1 VND / USD compared to the rate announced the previous week. Since early 2020, the central exchanged rate has been adjusted to decrease by 27 VND / USD (equivalent to a decrease of 0.12%). 

It is forecasted that the USD / VND exchange rate will continue to decline slightly in the short term due to the decrease in foreign currency investment and the decline in the hoarding of the USD. Hoarding USD is not beneficial while other investment channels such as real estate, securities, and gold are more attractive. Besides, many forecasts show that the USD will continue its downward trend on the global foreign exchange market. The fact that the US Government continues to pump a large amount of money into the economy will cause the dollar to fall.

Currently, foreign exchange reserves of Vietnam are 92 billion USD. The World Bank estimates that this figure proves the resilience of the Vietnamese economy. Vietnam has reached a record high trade surplus in goods and has attracted large FDI inflows despite the pandemic. This has helped to minimize the impact of reducing remittances and foreign currency income from foreign tourists. Vietnam's balance of payments shows high resilience when the VND / USD exchange rate is maintained at a stable level.

Gold price

The world gold price increased in the context of the mass withdrawal of cash from the stock market. Positive information about bailout packages also pushed up the gold price. The increase in the price of gold due to the fac that the Covid-19 epidemic remains complicated with an increase in the number of global infections.
Gold price
At the end of the week, spot gold price was 1,870 USD / oz, which was an increase of 43 USD / oz (equivalent to an increase of 2.3%) compared to last week. Gold futures price in February 2021 on Comex New York was 1,871 USD / oz, up 39 USD / oz. On the Kitco trading exchange, spot gold prices were at 1,837.90 - 1,838.90 USD / oz, up 7.1 USD / oz (equivalent to an increase of 0.4%) compared to the previous week.

World gold price was about 51.93 million VND / tael, which is 3.37 million VND lower than the domestic gold price.
Domestically, the price of gold has decreased. Specifically, in Hanoi, SJC gold bought-in and sold-out prices were54.55 and 55.17 million dong / tael, respectively.

Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade
Compiled by VietnamCredit

Categories
Banking & Finance

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