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Vietnam’s economic overview (3Q2023)

Vietnam’s economic overview (3Q2023)

Friday 29, 09 2023
GDP in the first 9 months of 2023 increased by 4.24% over the same period last year, only higher than the growth rate of 2.19% and 1.57% of the first 9 months of 2020 and 2021, respectively.

1. GDP growth

Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2023 is estimated to increase by 5.33% over the same period last year. Specifically, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 3.72%, contributing 8.03% to the overall economic growth while the industrial and construction sector increased by 5.19%, contributing 38.63%, and the service sector increased by 6.24%, contributing 53.34%. Regarding GDP usage in the third quarter of 2023, final consumption increased by 3.79% over the same period last year, contributing 40.56% to the overall growth rate of the economy. Asset accumulation increased by 6.61%, contributing 44.92%. Export of goods and services increased by 2.27%. Imports of goods and services increased by 1.42%. The difference between import and export of goods and services contributed 14.52%.

Vietnam’s gross domestic product

GDP in the first 9 months of 2023 increased by 4.24% over the same period last year, only higher than the growth rate of 2.19% and 1.57% of the first 9 months of 2020 and 2021, respectively.

The added value of the agricultural sector in the first 9 months of 2023 increased by 3.42% over the same period last year, contributing 0.29 percentage points to the increase in the total added value of the entire economy. The forestry sector increased by 3.13% but accounted for a low proportion so it only contributed 0.02 percentage points. The fisheries sector increased by 3.56%, contributing 0.09 percentage points.

agricultural sector

Forestry

Fishery

In the industrial and construction sector faced many difficulties and challenges in the context of declining world aggregate demand. The added value of the entire industrial sector in the 9 months of 2023 only increased by 1.65% over the same period last year, which is the lowest increase of the same period of years in the period 2011-2023, contributing 0.56 percentage points to the growth rate of total added value of the entire economy. Particularly, the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 1.98% while the construction industry increased by 6.17%, contributing 0.42 percentage points.

The trade and tourism sectors maintained high growth momentum, positively contributing to the growth of the service sector. The added value of the service sector in the first 9 months of 2023 increased by 6.32% over the same period last year, higher than the increase of 1.87% and the decrease of 0.05% in the same period of 2020 and 2021.

Regarding the economic structure in the first 9 months of 2023, the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector accounted for 11.51%; the industrial and construction sector accounted for 37.16%; service sector accounted for 42.72%; product tax minus product subsidies accounted for 8.61%.

In terms of GDP usage in the first 9 months of 2023, final consumption increased by 3.03% over the same period in 2022, contributing 34.30% to the overall growth rate of the economy. Asset accumulation increased 3.22%, contributing 19.35%. Export of goods and services decreased by 5.79% while imports of goods and services decreased by 8.19%. The difference between import and export of goods and services contributed 46.35%

2. Industrial production

The added value of industrial production in the first 9 months of 2023 was estimated to increase by 1.65% over the same period last year, of which, the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 1.98%, contributing 0.51 percentage points to the increase in total added value of the entire economy.

The consumption index of the entire processing and manufacturing industry in the first 9 months of 2023 increased by 0.6% compared to the same period in 2022.

Industrial production

The inventory index of the entire processing and manufacturing industry was estimated to increase by 2.5% compared to the same time last month and by 19.4% compared to the same time last year. The average inventory rate of the entire processing and manufacturing industry in the 9 months of 2023 was 85.3%.

The number of workers working in industrial enterprises as of September 1, 2023 increased by 0.9% compared to last month and decreased by 1.9% compared to the same time last year.

3. Business registration

In September, there were 12,684 newly established enterprises, down 9.7% over the previous month and up 10.6% over the same period last year. About 5,808 businesses returned to operation, down 7.2% and up 13.5%; 4,124 businesses registered to temporarily suspend business for a limited time, down 20.4% and up 40.5%; 5,273 businesses stopped operating waiting for dissolution procedures, an increase of 1.1% and 25.9%; 1,441 enterprises completed dissolution procedures, an increase of 4.8% and a decrease of 4.9%.

Business registration

In the first 9 months of 2023, there were 116.3 thousand newly established businesses, an increase of 3.1% over the same period last year. Around 48.9 thousand businesses returned to operation, down 3.2%; 75.8 thousand enterprises temporarily suspended business for a certain period of time, an increase of 21.2%; 46.1 thousand businesses stopped operating waiting for dissolution procedures, an increase of 26.9%; 13.2 thousand businesses completed dissolution procedures, down 4.3%.

4. Investment

Realized social investment capital in the third quarter of 2023 at current prices was estimated to reach VND 902.5 trillion, up 7.6% over the same period last year. It is estimated that in the first 9 months of 2023, realized investment capital of the whole society at current prices may reach VND 2,260.5 trillion, an increase of 5.9% over the same period last year.

Total foreign investment capital registered in Vietnam as of September 20, 2023 including newly registered capital, adjusted registered capital and capital contributions and share purchases of foreign investors reached nearly USD 20.21 billion, up 7.7% over the same period last year. Realized foreign direct investment capital in Vietnam in the first 9 months of 2023 was estimated to reach USD 15.91 billion, up 2.2% over the same period last year. This is the highest amount of realized foreign direct investment in 9 months in the past 5 years.

Investment

As for Vietnam's investment abroad in the first 9 months of 2023, there were 84 projects newly granted investment certificates with a total Vietnamese capital of USD 244.8 million, down 29.5% over the same period last year. There were 18 projects with adjusted capital with an increased capital of USD 172 million. Overall, Vietnam's total investment capital abroad (new and adjusted capital) reached USD 416.8 million, up 4.6% over the same period last year.

5. Retail sales of consumer goods and services

Total retail sales of goods and consumer service in September were estimated at VND 524.6 trillion, up 2.4% over the previous month and up 7.5% over the same period last year. In the third quarter of 2023, total retail sales of goods and consumer service were estimated to reach VND 1,550.2 trillion, up 1.9% over the previous quarter and up 7.3% over the same period last year. In the first 9 months of 2023, total retail sales of consumer goods and services at current prices were estimated to reach VND 4,567.8 trillion, an increase of 9.7% over the same period last year.

Revenue from telecommunications in the third quarter of 2023 was estimated to reach VND 82 trillion, up 3.9% over the same period last year. In the first 9 months of 2023, telecommunications revenue was estimated to reach VND 254.3 trillion, up 2.8% over the same period last year.

Retail sales of consumer goods and services

The number of international visitors to Vietnam in September 2023 reached more than 1 million people, down 13.4% compared to the previous month and 2.4 times higher than the same period last year. The number of Vietnamese people leaving the country reached 501.4 thousand people, an increase of 43.1% over the same period last year. In the first 9 months of 2023, the figure for international visitors to Vietnam was estimated to reach 8.9 million people, 4.7 times higher than the same period last year but still only 69% compared to the pre-pandemic period.

6. Finance and banking

As of September 20, 2023, total means of payment increased by 4.75% compared to the end of 2022, Capital mobilization of credit institutions increased by 5.8%. The economy's credit growth reached 5.73%.

Total insurance premium revenue in the third quarter of 2023 was estimated to reach VND 52.9 trillion, down 10.4% compared to the same period in 2022. In the first 9 months of 2023, total insurance premium revenue was estimated at VND 165.6 trillion, down 6.9%.

Since the beginning of the year, the average transaction value on the stock market has reached VND 16,940 billion/session, down 16% compared to the average in 2022. The average transaction value in the bond market reached VND 5,770 billion/session, down 24.9%. The average trading volume on the derivatives market reached 225,613 contracts/session, down 17%.

7. Imports & exports of goods and services

a) Imports & exports of goods

- Export of goods: Export turnover of goods in September 2023 was estimated to reach USD 31.41 billion, down 4.1% over the previous month and up 4.6% over the same period last year. Overall, for the first 9 months of 2023, export turnover of goods was estimated to reach USD 259.67 billion, down 8.2% over the same period last year.

Regarding the structure of goods export in the first 9 months of 2023, export value of the group of processed industrial goods was estimated to reach USD 229.22 billion, accounting for 88.3%.

– Import of goods: Import turnover of goods in September 2023 was estimated to reach USD 29.12 billion, down 0.7% over the previous month and up 2.6% over the same period last year. In the first 9 months of 2023, import turnover was estimated to reach USD 237.99 billion, down 13.8% over the same period last year.

As for the structure of imported goods in the first 9 months of 2023, import value the group of capital goods was estimated to reach USD 223.08 billion, accounting for 93.7%.

Export and import market of goods: in the first 9 months of 2023, the United States was Vietnam's largest export market with an estimated turnover of USD 70.9 billion while China was Vietnam's largest import market with an estimated turnover of USD 79.1 billio.

The trade balance of goods in September was estimated to have a trade surplus of USD 2.29 billion. In general, for the first 9 months of 2023, the trade balance of goods was estimated to have a trade surplus of USD 21.68 billion.

Import & Export

b) Imports & exports of services

In the third quarter of 2023, service export turnover was estimated to reach USD 5.1 billion, up 24.9% over the same period last year and up 11.6% over the previous quarter. Service import turnover was estimated at USD 7.7 billion, up 4.8% and 11.9%. In the first 9 months of 2023, service export turnover was estimated to reach USD 14.2 billion, up 60.6% over the same period in 2022. Service import turnover reached USD 20.9 billion (including USD 7.5 billion in transportation and insurance service fees for imported goods), an increase of 0.8%. The service trade deficit in the first 9 months of 2023 was USD 6.7 billion.

8. Consumer price index and inflation

Consumer price index (CPI) in September 2023 increased by 1.08% compared to the previous month. Compared to December 2022, September’s CPI increased by 3.12% and compared to the same period last year, it increased by 3.66%. Average CPI in the third quarter of 2023 increased by 2.89% compared to the third quarter of 2022. In the first 9 months of this year, CPI increased by 3.16% over the same period last year. Core inflation increased by 4.49%.

The gold price index in September 2023 increased by 0.94% compared to the previous month, by 4.91% compared to December 2022 and by 7.83% over the same period last year.

The US dollar price index in September 2023 increased by 1.53% compared to the previous month, by 0.35% compared to December 2022, and by 2.43% over the same period last year.

Source: GSO

Compiled by VietnamCredit

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