Vietnam is entering a capital-intensive development phase. From 2026 to 2030, the Government aims to sustain high economic growth by mobilizing large volumes of long-term capital for infrastructure, energy transition, logistics, digital transformation, and industrial upgrading. In this context, credit ratings are no longer a supplementary market feature; they are becoming a core component of Vietnam’s financial infrastructure.
Credit ratings help investors price risk, enable issuers to access longer-tenor capital, and support regulators in strengthening market discipline. As Vietnam’s development model shifts toward scale, efficiency, and transparency, the role of credit rating agencies is becoming increasingly central.
Policy discussions in late 2025 indicate a growing reliance on both public investment and market-based funding, including bonds and institutional capital. The Ministry of Finance is preparing a medium-term public investment plan for 2026–2030, estimated at more than VNĐ 8 quadrillion, highlighting the sheer scale of Vietnam’s capital requirements.
At the same time, financial sector observers continue to warn that Vietnam cannot sustain ambitious growth targets through bank credit alone. The credit-to-GDP ratio is already high and rising, creating structural pressure on the banking system. This combination of significant funding needs and regulatory efforts to deepen capital markets creates favorable conditions for the rapid expansion of the domestic credit rating industry.
Vietnam’s financial system remains bank-centric. This model worked during periods dominated by short- to medium-term borrowing and strong deposit growth. However, the next development phase requires long-duration funding for long-duration assets. Financing major infrastructure and energy projects through bank balance sheets alone would increase systemic risk.
Deeper bond markets, broader institutional participation, and stronger risk signaling are essential. Credit ratings are among the fastest and most effective tools to improve that signaling. Recent corporate bond market reforms and investor-protection measures reflect this regulatory direction. Research from VIS Rating shows that despite five licensed domestic agencies, only a small portion of the bond market is currently rated, underscoring significant growth potential for ratings penetration.
Vietnam’s credit rating sector is still young but now formally structured. The Ministry of Finance has granted licenses to five domestic credit rating companies:
Saigon Phat Thinh Ratings JSC (Saigon Ratings), FiinRatings JSC, Vietnam Investors Service, Credit Rating Agency JSC (VIS Rating), S&I Ratings JSC, and Thien Minh Credit Rating JSC.
Licensing and oversight are governed by a clear regulatory framework tied to Ministry of Finance certification, providing the institutional foundation for market development.
VIS Rating is currently the most internationally connected agency. Its establishment with support from Moody’s marked a milestone for Vietnam’s ratings ecosystem, bringing global methodologies closer to local issuers and investors. This is increasingly important as Vietnamese companies seek foreign capital, where international investors typically require standardized ratings and governance benchmarks.
FiinRatings positions itself as both a credit rating and analytics provider closely aligned with capital market development. Its emphasis on data transparency and investor confidence resonates strongly as Vietnam seeks to rebuild trust after periods of bond-market volatility.
Saigon Ratings and S&I Ratings contribute to expanding domestic capacity and competition, supporting broader issuer coverage. Thien Minh Credit Rating, the most recently licensed agency, is a new but promising entrant. Its late entry allows it to build within a more mature regulatory environment, with opportunities to focus on underserved segments such as mid-sized enterprises, emerging sectors, and specialized instruments.
Vietnam’s development ambition over the next five years is often discussed at around USD 1.4 trillion, or roughly USD 280 billion per year, combining public investment, private capital, and foreign inflows. While official figures are presented through separate plans and sectoral targets, the direction is clear: capital mobilization must accelerate.
As bond issuance, project finance, and public-private partnerships expand, investors will demand more precise differentiation of risk across issuers and projects. The cost of capital will increasingly depend on verifiable credit metrics, transparency, and governance rather than relationships or collateral alone. This shift places credit ratings at the center of capital allocation.
The State Bank of Vietnam continues to emphasize growth alongside macro-financial stability. Policymakers acknowledge that bank credit cannot remain the primary funding source for long-term development. High credit concentration increases systemic risk and limits flexibility.
Credit ratings complement supervision by reinforcing disclosure standards, enabling risk-based pricing, and supporting the development of non-bank capital channels. In this sense, ratings are not merely market tools but instruments that support financial stability and policy objectives.
Vietnam’s plan to establish International Financial Centers in Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang adds another structural driver. Approved in 2025, the IFC initiative aims to attract global capital and elevate Vietnam’s position in international finance.
A credible IFC requires institutions that global investors understand and trust: audited reporting, enforceable disclosure, professional bondholder representation, and reliable credit ratings. As Vietnam integrates more deeply into international capital markets, demand for domestic credit ratings—especially for corporate bonds, infrastructure vehicles, and structured finance—will increase significantly.
Vietnam’s sovereign credit rating has improved over the past decade but remains below investment grade. Fitch and S&P currently rate Vietnam at BB+ with a stable outlook, while Moody’s assigns a Ba2 rating.
Sovereign upgrades depend primarily on macroeconomic stability, fiscal credibility, and institutional strength. However, deeper domestic credit rating coverage can indirectly strengthen sovereigns by improving capital allocation, enhancing transparency in the bond market, and widening the investor base to fund public and strategic projects. As Vietnam increases bond issuance to finance development, credible risk pricing becomes more critical.
Vietnam’s credit rating industry has completed the licensing phase; the next challenge is scale. The most immediate opportunity lies in expanding coverage among corporate bond issuers and major borrowing groups in key sectors such as energy, logistics, industrial parks, infrastructure, and manufacturing.
A second growth area lies in bank-adjacent ratings, including bank issuers, subordinated debt, and structured products that may emerge as the market matures. The primary constraint is not technical capacity but incentives and disclosure. Many issuers still view ratings as optional or fear negative market perception.
As regulatory reforms deepen and investor standards rise—especially under the IFC vision—credit ratings are likely to shift from voluntary to commercially necessary.
Vietnam’s next five years will be defined by the dual challenge of sustaining high growth while financing development at an unprecedented scale. The five licensed credit rating agencies—Saigon Ratings, FiinRatings, VIS Rating, S&I Ratings, and Thien Minh Credit Rating—stand at the intersection of these goals.
Business information is the foundation of credit ratings. Reliable data on a company’s finances, ownership, governance, operations, and legal status enables rating agencies to assess credit risk accurately and consistently. Without transparent and verified business information, credit ratings cannot effectively reflect an issuer’s true risk profile.
At the same time, growing demand for credit ratings increases the importance of high-quality business information. Together, they form a complementary system that supports investor confidence, risk pricing, and efficient capital allocation in financial markets.
