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Vietnam’s economic overview (1Q2023)

Vietnam’s economic overview (1Q2023)

Wednesday 29, 03 2023
Gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2023 was estimated to increase by 3.32% over the same period last year. In particular, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector grew by 2.52%, contributing 8.85% to the overall growth; the industrial and construction sector decreased by 0.4%, contributing -4.76%; the service sector increased by 6.79%, contributing 95.91%.

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GDP growth

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2023 was estimated to increase by 3.32% over the same period last year. In particular, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector grew by 2.52%, contributing 8.85% to the overall growth; the industrial and construction sector decreased by 0.4%, contributing -4.76%; the service sector increased by 6.79%, contributing 95.91%.

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In the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector, agricultural added value in the first quarter of 2023 increased by 2.43% over the same period last year, contributing 0.22 percentage points to the increase in total added value of the whole economy; the forestry sector increased by 3.66% but accounted for a low proportion, so it contributed only 0.02 percentage points; the fisheries sector increased by 2.68%, contributing 0.06 percentage points.

In the industrial and construction sector, the industrial added value decreased by 0.82% over the same period last year, which is the deepest decrease of the same period from 2011, reducing 0.28 percentage points in the increase in total value added of the whole economy. The processing and manufacturing industry decreased by 0.37%, contributing -0.1 percentage point. Mining industry decreased by 5.6%, contributing -0.2 percentage points. The construction industry alone increased by 1.95%, contributing 0.12 percentage points.

The service sector in the first quarter of 2023 clearly showed a recoverythanks to the effectiveness of policies to stimulate domestic consumption and activities to promote Vietnam's tourism to countries around the world. The contribution of some service industries to the increase in total value added in the first quarter of this year is as follows: accommodation and catering services increased by 25.98% over the same period last year, contributing 0.64 points; wholesale and retail increased by 8.09%, contributing 0.85 percentage points; financial, banking and insurance activities increased by 7.65%, contributing 0.45 percentage points; transportation and warehousing increased by 6.85%, contributing 0.43 percentage points; information and communication industry increased by 1.5%, contributing 0.1 percentage points.

Regarding the economic structure in the first quarter of 2023, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector accounted for 11.66%; industrial and construction sector accounted for 35.47%; service sector accounted for 43.65%; product tax minus product subsidies accounted for 9.22% (corresponding structure of the same period in 2022 was 11.57%; 37.08%; 42.06%; 9.29%).

Regarding GDP use in the first quarter of 2023, final consumption increased by 3.01% over the same period last year, contributing 46.11% to the overall growth rate; accumulated assets increased by 0.02%, contributed 0.14%; exports of goods and services decreased by 8.33%; import of goods and services decreased by 10.52%, the difference between import and export of goods and services contributed 53.75%.

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2. Industrial production

The IIP index is estimated to decrease by 2.2% over the same period last year (in the same period in 2022, it increased by 6.8%). The consumption index of the entire processing and manufacturing industry in the first quarter of 2023 decreased by 2.9% compared to the same period in 2022 (in the same period in 2022, it increased by 6.6%).

As of March 31, 2023 the inventory index of the entire processing and manufacturing industry is estimated to increase by 19.8% compared to the same period last year. The average inventory rate of the whole processing and manufacturing industry in the first quarter of 2023 is 81.1%.

The number of employees working in industrial enterprises as of March 1, 2023 increased by 0.8% compared to the same period last month and decreased by 2.2% compared to the same period last year.

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3. Business registration

In March, there were 14.2 thousand newly established enterprises, up 60.9% over the previous month and down 0.6% over the same period last year; nearly 6.3 thousand enterprises returned to operation, up 60.1% and 46.2%; 4,147 enterprises registered to suspend business for a definite time, up 9.1% and 39.3%; 3,452 enterprises stopped operating for dissolution procedures, up 31% and 39.5%; there were 1,412 enterprises completing dissolution procedures, up 21% and up 31.1%.

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In the first quarter of 2023 in general, there were 57,000 enterprises registered for new establishment and returning to operation, down 5.4% over the same period last year. On average, nearly 19,000 businesses were newly established and re-operated per month. The number of enterprises withdrawing from the market was 60.2 thousand, an increase of 17.4% over the same period last year. On average, nearly 20.1 thousand enterprises withdrew from the market every month.

4. Investment

Realized social investment capital in the first quarter of 2023 at current prices was estimated at VND 583.1 trillion, up 3.7% over the same period last year.

The total foreign investment capital registered in Vietnam as of March 20, 2023 including newly registered capital, adjusted registered capital and capital contribution and share purchase by foreign investors reached USD 5.45 billion, down 38.8% over the same period last year. Realized foreign direct investment capital in Vietnam in the first three months of 2023 was estimated at USD 4.32 billion, down 2.2% over the same period last year.

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5. Retail sales of consumer goods and services

Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in March was estimated at VND 501.3 trillion, up 2.0% from the previous month and up 13.4% over the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2023, the total retail sales of consumer goods and services was estimated at VND 1,505.3 trillion, up 13.9% over the same period last year. 3%.

The number of international visitors to Vietnam in March was estimated at 895.4 thousand arrivals, down 4% compared to the previous month and 21.5 times higher than the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2023, international visitors to Vietnam were estimated at more than 2,699.5 thousand arrivals, 29.7 times higher than the same period last year.

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6. Finance and banking

As of March 20, 2023, the total means of payment increased by 0.57% compared to the end of 2022; capital mobilization from credit institutions increased by 0.77%; credit growth of the economy reached 1.61%.

Total premium revenue in the first quarter of 2023 was estimated at VND 59,458 billion, up 6.8% over the same period in 2022.

In the first quarter of 2023, the average trading value on the stock market reached VND 11,437 billion/session, down 43.3% compared to the average in 2022. The average trading value on the bond market reached VND 4,740 billion/session, down 38.3%.

7. Imports & exports of goods and services

a) Imports & exports of goods

Export turnover of goods in March 2023 was estimated at USD 29.57 billion, up 13.5% over the previous month and down 14.8% over the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2023, export turnover of goods was estimated at USD 79.17 billion, down 11.9% over the same period last year.

Import turnover of goods in March 2023 was estimated at USD 28.92 billion, up 24.4% over the previous month and down 11.1% over the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2023, the import turnover of goods was estimated at USD 75.1 billion, down 14.7% over the same period last year.

Regarding the export and import markets of goods in the first quarter of 2023, the United States is the largest export market of Vietnam with an estimated turnover of USD 20.6 billion while China is Vietnam's largest import market with an estimated turnover of USD 23.6 billion.

The trade balance of goods in March is estimated to have a trade surplus of USD 0.65 billion. In the first quarter of 2023, the trade balance of goods is estimated to have a trade surplus of USD 4.07 billion.

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b) Imports & exports of services

In the first quarter of 2023, service export turnover was estimated at USD 5.44 billion, up 238.3% over the same period last year; service import turnover was estimated at USD 5.66 billion, down 4.3%. The service trade deficit in the first quarter of 2023 was USD 216 million.

8. Consumer price index and inflation

The consumer price index (CPI) in March 2023 decreased by 0.23% compared to the previous month. Compared to December 2022, CPI in March 2023 increased by 0.74% and over the same period last year, it increased by 3.35%. In the first quarter of 2023, CPI increased by 4.18% over the same period last year; core inflation increased by 5.01%.

Gold price index in March decreased by 0.56% compared to the previous month and down 2.36% over the same period last year. On average, in the first quarter of 2023, the domestic gold price index increased by 1.25% over the same period last year.

The US dollar price index in March increased by 0.47% compared to the previous month and by 3.5% over the same period last year. On average, in the first quarter of 2023, the domestic US dollar price index increased by 3.45% over the same period last year.

Source: GSO

Compiled by VietnamCredit

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