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Vietnam’s 2023 socio-economic overview

Vietnam’s 2023 socio-economic overview

Thursday 04, 01 2024
The General Statistics Office has just released statistics on the socio-economic situation of Vietnam in the fourth quarter and 2023. Accordingly, by the end of 2023, the average population is estimated at 100.3 million people, an increase of 834,800 people, equivalent to a rise of 0.84% compared to 2022.

A brief into Vietnam social conditions in 2023

Vietnam’s average population in 2023 is estimated to be 100.3 million people, an increase of 834.8 thousand people, equivalent to a rise of 0.84% compared to 2022. Population quality has improved while fertility has decreased sharply. The mortality rate remains low while average life expectancy increases due to the achievements of medical development and improved health care.

The labor and employment situation in the fourth quarter of 2023 showed many signs of improvement compared to the previous quarter and the same period last year.

The country's labor force aged 15 and older in IV/2023 is estimated to be 52.5 million people, an increase of 113.5 thousand people over the previous quarter and an increase of 401.9 thousand people over the same period last year. Overall, in 2023, the labor force aged 15 and over is 52.4 million people, an increase of 666.5 thousand people compared to the previous year.

The number of employed workers in the fourth quarter of 2023 are estimated to be 51.5 million people, an increase of 130.4 thousand people compared to the previous quarter and an increase of 414.6 thousand people over the same period last year. Overall, in 2023, there are 51.3 million employed workers, an increase of 683 thousand people (equivalent to an increase of 1.35%) compared to the previous year.

The unemployment rate among people of working age in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.26%, down 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous quarter and down 0.06 percentage points over the same period last year. This rate for the whole year of 2023 is 2.28%, down 0.06 percentage points compared to the previous year, of which 2.73% in urban areas while the figure for the rural areas is 2.00%.

The underemployment rate among the working age population in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 1.98%, down 0.08 percentage points compared to the previous quarter and unchanged compared to the same period last year. Generally, in 2023, the underemployment rate among the working age population is 2.01%, down 0.20 percentage points compared to the previous year.

The average income of workers in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 7.3 million VND/month, an increase of 180 thousand VND compared to the third quarter of 2023 and an increase of 444 thousand VND compared to the same period in 2022. In 2023, the average income of workers is 7.1 million VND/month, an increase of 6.9%, equivalent to an increase of 459 thousand VND compared to the previous year.

Economic overview

1. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is estimated to increase by 6.72% over the same period last year, higher than the fourth quarter of 2012-2013 and 2020-2022. In particular, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 4.13%, contributing 7.51% to the increase in total added value of the entire economy; the industrial and construction sector increased by 7.35%, contributing 42.58%; the service sector increased by 7.29%, contributing 49.91%. Regarding GDP usage in the fourth quarter of 2023, final consumption increased by 4.86% over the same period last year, contributing 53.18% to the overall growth rate of the economy; asset accumulation increased by 6.21%, contributing 44.18%; export of goods and services increased by 8.68%; imports of goods and services increased by 8.76%.

GDP Vietnam

GDP in 2023 is estimated to increase by 5.05% compared to the previous year, only higher than the growth rate of 2.87% and 2.55% of 2020 and 2021, respectively (in the period 2011-2023). In the overall growth the economy, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 3.83%, contributing 8.84%; the industrial and construction sector increased by 3.74%, contributing 28.87%; the service sector increased by 6.82%, contributing 62.29%.

Growth rate of GDP and VA of sectors over the quarters of 202

The agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector has grown positively, in which the export turnover of some agricultural products has increased, livestock has developed stably, and the application of high-tech models in white-legged shrimp farming has brought many benefits. The added value of the agricultural sector in 2023 increases by 3.88% compared to the previous year, contributing 0.34 percentage points to the increase in the total added value of the entire economy; the forestry sector increased by 3.74% but accounted for a low proportion so it only contributed 0.02 percentage points; the fisheries sector increased by 3.71%, contributing 0.1 percentage points.

In the industrial and construction sector, there are many difficulties and challenges in the context of declining demand in the world. The added value of the entire industry in 2023 only increased by 3.02% compared to the previous year, which is the lowest increase in the period 2011-2023. Specifically, the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 3.62%, contributing 0.93 percentage points. The water supply, waste management and treatment, and wastewater sectors increased by 5.18%, contributing 0.03 percentage points. The electricity production and distribution industry increased by 3.79%, contributing 0.14 percentage points. The mining industry decreased by 3.17%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point. The construction industry increased by 7.06%, contributing 0.51 percentage points.

Agriculture

Forestry

Fishery

Trade and tourism activities maintained high growth momentum, positively contributing to the growth of the service sector. The added value of the service sector in 2023 increased by 6.82% compared to the previous year, higher than the increase of 2.01% and 1.75% in the years 2020 and 2021.

Regarding the economic structure in 2023, the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector accounts for 11.96%; The industrial and construction sector accounts for 37.12%; service sector accounts for 42.54%; Product tax minus product subsidies accounts for 8.38%.

In terms of GDP usage in 2023, final consumption increased by 3.52% compared to 2022, contributing 41.04% to the overall growth rate of the economy. Asset accumulation increased by 4.09%, contributing 26.64%. Export of goods and services decreased by 2.54% and imports of goods and services decreased by 4.33%. The difference between import and export of goods and services contributed 32.32%.

The scale of GDP at current prices in 2023 is estimated to reach 10,221.8 trillion VND, equivalent to 430 billion USD. GDP per capita in 2023 at current prices is estimated to reach 101.9 million VND/person, equivalent to 4,284 USD, an increase of 160 USD compared to 2022. Labor productivity in 2023 at current prices is estimated at 199.3 million VND/worker (equivalent to 8,380 USD/worker, an increase of 274 USD compared to 2022). According to comparative prices, labor productivity increased by 3.65% due to improved qualifications of workers.

2. Industrial production

The added value of industrial production 2023 is estimated to increase by 3.02% compared to the previous year. Specifically, the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 3.62%, contributing 0.93 percentage, the electricity production and distribution industry increased by 3.79%, contributing 0.14 percentage points; water supply, waste and wastewater management and treatment activities increased by 5.18%, contributing 0.03 percentage points; the mining industry decreased by 3.17%, contributing negative 0.10 percentage points.

The consumption index of the entire processing and manufacturing industry in December 2023 increased by 3.1% over the previous month and increased by 5.1% over the same period last year. Overall, in 2023, the consumption index of the entire processing and manufacturing industry increased by 1.8% compared to 2022.

Industrial production

As of December 31, 2023, the inventory index of the processing and manufacturing industry was estimated to decrease by 1.3% compared to last month and increase by 19.8% compared to the same period last year. The average inventory rate of the entire processing and manufacturing industry in 2023 was 87.5%.

The number of workers working in industrial enterprises as of December 1, 2023 increased by 0.9% compared to last month and decreased by 2.2% compared to the same period last year.

3. Business activities

Business registration

In December, there were 13.3 thousand newly established businesses, down 7.1% over the previous month and up 23% over the same period last year. About 6,390 businesses returned to operation, down 2.6% and up 4.7%. The number of businesses registered to temporarily suspend business for a limited time was 3,802, down 15.7% and up 0.7%. 8,687 enterprises stopped operating waiting for dissolution procedures, an increase of 31.7% and an increase of 48.6%; 1,866 enterprises completed dissolution procedures, an increase of 29.3% and an increase of 6%.

Overall, in 2023, there were 217.7 thousand businesses newly established and returning to operation, an increase of 4.5% compared to the previous year. On average, each month, there were 18.1 thousand new businesses established and returning to operation. The number of businesses withdrawing from the market was 172.6 thousand, an increase of 20.5%.

Business registration

Business trend

Results of the survey of business trends of enterprises in the processing and manufacturing industry in the fourth quarter of 2023 show that: 31.7% of businesses rated it better than the third quarter of 2023 while 31.6% of businesses assessed that the trend would be better compared to the fourth quarter of 2023.

4. Total retail sales of goods and services

Total retail sales of goods and consumer service in December 2023 are estimated to reach 565.8 trillion VND, up 2.6% over the previous month and up 9.3% over the same period last year. In the fourth quarter of 2023, total retail sales of goods and consumer service are estimated to reach 1,662.7 trillion VND, an increase of 7.2% over the previous quarter and an increase of 9.3% over the same period last year. In 2023, the total retail sales of goods and consumer service at current prices are estimated to reach 6,231.8 trillion VND, an increase of 9.6% compared to the previous year.

Telecommunications revenue in the fourth quarter of 2023 is estimated to reach 84.8 trillion VND, up 1.5% over the same period last year (if excluding the price factor, which increased by 1.1%). In general, in 2023, telecommunications revenue is estimated to reach 338.5 trillion VND, an increase of 2.3% compared to the previous year.

Total retail sales of goods and services

The number of international visitors to Vietnam in December reached nearly 1.4 million people, up 11.2% over the previous month and up 93.9% over the same period last year. The number of Vietnamese people leaving the country reached 352.1 thousand people, an increase of 23.2% over the same period last year. Overall, in 2023, the number of international visitors to Vietnam reached 12.6 million people, 3.4 times more than in 2022, far exceeding the target of 8 million international visitors but only equal to 70% of.

5. Banking, insurance, and securities

As of December 21, 2023, total means of payment increased by 10.03% compared to the end of 2022. Capital mobilization of credit institutions increased by 10.85%. The economy's credit growth reached 11.09%.

Total insurance premium revenue in the fourth quarter of 2023 is estimated to decrease by 11.9% compared to the same period last year. In general, in 2023, premium revenue from the entire insurance market is estimated to reach 227.1 trillion VND, down 8.33% compared to the previous year.

As of December 15, 2023, the average transaction value on the stock market reached 17,624 billion VND/session, down 12.6% compared to the average in 2022. The average transaction value in the bond market reached 6,114 billion VND/session, down 20.4%. The average trading volume of futures contract products on the VN30 index reached 237,702 contracts/session, down 13% compared to the average in 2022. Covered warrant products reached 32.23 million warrants/session, down 0.6% and transaction value reached 28.67 billion VND/session, up 35.2%.

6. Investment

Realized social investment capital in the fourth quarter of 2023 at current prices is estimated at 1,164.1 trillion VND, up 7.1% over the same period last year. It is estimated that in 2023, realized social investment capital at current prices is estimated to reach 3,423.5 trillion VND, an increase of 6.2% compared to the previous year.

Investment

As of December 20, 2023, the total foreign investment capital registered in Vietnam including newly registered capital, adjusted registered capital and capital contributions and share purchases of foreign investors reached nearly 36.6 billion USD, an increase of 32.1% over the previous year. Realized foreign direct investment capital in Vietnam in 2023 is estimated to reach 23.18 billion USD, an increase of 3.5% over the previous year. This is the highest amount of realized foreign direct investment in the past 5 years.

Regarding Vietnam's investment abroad in 2023, there were 124 projects newly granted investment certificates with a total Vietnamese capital of 282.7 million USD, down 33.7% over the same period last year. Overall, Vietnam's total investment capital abroad (new and adjusted capital) reached 420.9 million USD, down 21.2% over the same period last year.

7. Export and import of goods & services

Export and import of goods

Export turnover of goods in December 2023 is estimated to reach 32.91 billion USD, up 5.7% over the previous month and up 13.1% over the same period last year. In the fourth quarter of 2023, export turnover is estimated to reach 96.5 billion USD, an increase of 8.8% over the same period last year and 3.2% compared to the third quarter of 2023. For the whole year 2023, the export turnover of goods is estimated at 355.5 billion USD, down 4.4% compared to the previous year.

Regarding the structure of goods export, the export value of processed industrial goods is estimated to reach 313.73 billion USD, accounting for 88.3%.

Import turnover of goods in December 2023 is estimated at 30.63 billion USD, up 3.6% over the previous month and up 12.3% over the same period last year. In the fourth quarter of 2023, import turnover is estimated to reach 90.2 billion USD, up 8% over the same period last year and up 6.3% over the third quarter of 2023. For the whole year 2023, import turnover of goods are estimated at 327.5 billion USD, down 8.9% compared to the previous year.

As for the structure of imported goods in 2023, the import value of capital goods is estimated to reach 307.32 billion USD, accounting for 93.8%.

In 2023, the United States is Vietnam's largest export market with an estimated turnover of 96.8 billion USD while China is Vietnam's largest import market with an estimated turnover of 111.6 billion USD.

The trade balance of goods in December is estimated to have a trade surplus of 2.28 billion USD. For the whole year 2023, the trade balance of goods is estimated to have a trade surplus of 28 billion USD.

Export and import

Export and import of services

In the fourth quarter of 2023, service export turnover is estimated to reach 5.4 billion USD, up 15.2% over the same period in 2022 and up 6.5% over the previous quarter. Service import turnover is estimated at 8.1 billion USD, up 20.4% over the same period last year and up 3.4% over the previous quarter.

For the whole year 2023, service export turnover is estimated to reach 19.59 billion USD, an increase of 44.9% compared to 2022, of which export value of tourism services reach 9.2 billion USD (accounting for 46.7% of total turnover), 2.9 times higher than the previous year while that of transportation services reached 5.5 billion USD (accounting for 28.1%), down 1.8%.

Service import turnover for the whole year 2023 is estimated to reach 29.06 billion USD (of which 10.38 billion USD is included in transportation service fees and insurance for imported goods), an increase of 5.9% compared to the previous year, of which transportation services reached 12.6 billion USD (accounting for 43.3% of total turnover), down 0.4% while tourism services reached 7.8 billion USD (accounting for 26.9%), an increase of 17.3%.

The service trade deficit in 2023 is 9.47 billion USD.

8. CPI and inflation

Consumer price index (CPI) in December 2023 increased by 0.12% compared to the previous month. Compared to the same period last year, December’s CPI increased by 3.58%. Average CPI in the fourth quarter of 2023 increased by 3.54% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. For the whole year 2023, CPI increased by 3.25% compared to the previous year, reaching the target set by the National Assembly.

Gold price index in December 2023 increased by 3.98% compared to the previous month and increased by 13.13% over the same period last year. The average increase in 2023 is 4.16%.

The US dollar price index in December 2023 decreased by 0.56% compared to the previous month but increased 1.04% over the same period last year. The average increase in 2023 is 1.86%.

Source: General Statistics Office

Compiled by VietnamCredit

 

 

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