According to the General Department of Customs, Vietnam had a trade surplus of 1.27 billion USD in November. In the 11 months of 2021, Vietnam has a trade surplus of nearly 1.5 billion USD in 11 months.
As a result, import-export turnover in 11 months reached 602 billion USD. In which, accumulated in 11 months, total export turnover reached more than 301.7 billion USD, up 18.3% over the same period, equivalent to 46.7 billion USD.
In 2020, despite being heavily and unprecedentedly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, Vietnam's import and export turnover still reached over 545 billion USD. It is forecasted that in 2021, import and export turnover will surpass 660 billion USD, putting Vietnam in the group of 20 leading economies in terms of international trade.
On that basis, Vietnam's exports prospects in 2022 are deemed positive as global trade is expected to continue to recover in 2022. Besides, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), expected to take effect from the beginning of 2022, will boost Vietnam's exports to partner countries in 2022.
Another factor that will also affect export prospects is the cost of transportation. It is expected that shipping costs will gradually return to normal from the end of 2021, thanks to high vaccination rates. There will also be a reduction in container shortages after a sharp increase in orders for container production since mid-2021.
Accordingly, the transportation costs reduction will create favorable conditions for Vietnamese enterprises to boost exports in 2022, especially to the US and European markets. It is expected that Vietnam's exports will maintain a high rate, growing 12.5% year-on-year in 2022. Exports will continue to be the main growth engine for the Vietnamese economy in 2022.
It is expected that exports are expected to continue to grow well in the fourth quarter of 2021 and 2022, thanks to a strong recovery in international demand. That creates a lot of potentials for enterprises to export textiles, wood, seafood, iron and steel.
In 2022, when the COVID-19 pandemic is anticipated to be under control, and with the import market recovers, the efforts of companies and farmers will boost the output and export turnover of the seafood industry.
In addition, transportation costs are on a downward trend after increasing sharply in the first nine months of 2021, helping seafood exporters to reduce selling and administrative costs.
These factors will help seafood exporters increase revenue and net profit margin, promising a bright period for the industry, especially for market leaders.
Experts expect the prospects of Vietnam's textile and garment industry in 2022 will depend on the recovery of the US and EU. Specifically, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) forecast global GDP growth to reach 4.9% in 2022, and world textile and garment demand in 2022 will return to the level of 4.9% in 2019, reaching about 740 billion USD.
In addition, it is forecast that Vietnam's textile and garment export turnover will reach 38 billion USD, up 8.5% over the same period in 2022 and 43 billion USD, up 13.1% year-on-year in 2023.
According to statistics, wood export is still growing well, thanks to the significant increase in purchasing power from the US, China, Japan, etc.
In the first 11 months of 2021, the export value of wood and wood products is estimated at 13.2 billion USD, up 20% over the same period in 2020.
In which, the export value of wood products is estimated at 9.9 billion USD, up 16.6% over the same period in 2020.
Regarding the export prospect of wood products, the US is the largest import market in Vietnam and is expected to increase sharply in the near future. In particular, Vietnam is currently the first choice for furniture replacement from China, with the second position in the world in terms of export market share of wooden furniture.
In addition, the US also imposed import taxes on wood furniture in China, while China is a major exporter of wood and wood products to the US, due to trade tensions.
The increased demand for real estate construction and interior repair after the economy recovers will also be a factor promoting wood consumption globally and in the main export markets of Vietnam like the US.
Experts estimate that the demand for steel in export markets will remain high until the first quarter of 2022. The reason is that major economies promote the disbursement of public investment. Specifically, the infrastructure investment bill worth 1.2 trillion USD in the US will increase steel demand by about 5 million tons/year in the period from 2022 - 2025.
Source: The Ministry of Industry and Trade
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