It's been a long time since the beginning of April until now, the stock market has witnessed a deep decline for 2 consecutive sessions of the VN-Index with more than 36 points (nearly 4%) to the area of 863.52 points. The liquidity in the market increased significantly with the average matched value of all 3 exchanges reaching VND 10,000 billion. This is obvious because too many accounts are in a state of great profit so the implementation of profit-taking at all costs.
According to Mr. Bui Van Huy - Director of the market strategy of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Company. HCM (HSC), the market's rebound from the bottom on 24/3 to the beginning of June into 2 stages.
+ The first leg from the bottom when the VN-Index is at 650-800 points is called the phase of fundamental analysis - the period of recovery when falling into oversold status in the short term. Mr. Huy said that this period still had doubts and bottom-fishing stocks must bring great confidence to investors to take risks. This period was true to the basic expectations when the stocks were less affected by Covid-19 such as information technology, telecommunications, healthcare, industrial park real estate ... increased prices well.
+ The second stage is when the VN-Index fluctuates from 750 to 900 points, which can be called the phase of investors F0. At this stage, a large amount of money from new individual investors poured into the market, causing the VN-Index to increase one circuit from 750 points to 900 points. According to statistics of the Vietnam Securities Depository (VSD), from March to May 2020, there were a total of 102,427 new accounts equivalent to the number of new accounts opened in the last 7 months of 2019. Along with the uptrend momentum of the index transactions in this period are also very different from new money colors rather than the basic elements. It is not possible to say that the market ignored all the basic factors, but actually this period has faded much more than the first stage.
According to the share from SSI Securities Company, the identities of F0 investors participating in the market today are business owners, business establishments that have been "stagnant" with money due to frozen business and production activities. During the epidemic, real estate investors have shifted and young, knowledgeable, knowledgeable technology developers - these are also the main forces of this "new wind". The consensus of small but large cash flow has contributed to creating 2 months of "buying and winning" of the stock market. According to statistics of Tan Viet Securities, 80-90% of the stocks in April and May are profitable.
Although the flow of money from new investors has brought a great change to the market in recent years, when looking back at the history of the market, long-term observers cannot help but ask questions.
"When were the times when you saw an enthusiasm to get rich in the stock market like this? The last time was the end of 2017 and the beginning of 2018 when the market was going to peak all the time or beyond was the period." "Play is winning" in 2007, "said Vu Bang, a member of the Prime Minister's economic advisory group, who asked himself and answered himself when referring to the F0 investor story.
According to Bang, the common denominator of these increases is optimism that goes beyond the fundamentals and then plummets because the nature of investment is that when unprofessional players rush to buy Chances are those who know enough go on sale.
Previously, many experts also made a lot of analyses on trading characteristics of F0 investors, saying that this group of investors has never been hurt by the fall of the market so they did not take profits. drastically but even tend to buy more. This statement is completely grounded because according to HL member of a securities forum "I started disbursing when the market is in the 700 point area so far, the account has gained more than 20% interest but will not take profit. , because I do not have much experience, so I will retain those stocks that are profitable and limit buying into stocks that have gained too much. ”
However, according to the share of analysts, the speculation level of the market was pushed higher, and later, with the speculative cash flow, the fundamentals of the market were not as important as the price movement characteristics. and technical factors of stocks.
Currently, many stocks below par value with high liquidity are the destination of cash flow but need to be reminded that a stock code traded below par value is basically unstable, not taking into account the impact of the disease. Even in many cases the stock price does not reflect the actual business performance, but depends on many factors such as policy information, industry waves, etc., even into the "games" of a part of investors.
In fact, optimism has made the market recover quickly but still need to be careful before the difficulties in the future. Investor psychology is currently taking advantage of making a profit and if any of the above 100,000 new investors set the same goal with inexperience, history may be repeated.
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Source: Vietnam Finance