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What is the future for gold price from now until Tet?

Monday 18, 11 2019
The price of gold is currently losing its appeal as global trade tensions drop sharply.
What is the future for gold price from now until Tet?
Last week, gold prices on the world market dropped to the lowest level in more than 3 months as investors turned to more risky investment channels due to the expectation that the world economy will calm down thanks to progress in talks regarding the US-China trade agreement and Britain's exit from the European Union (Brexit).

At the end of the week, the gold price stood at 1,466.6 USD / ounce. During the week, the price sometimes dropped to USD 1,453 - the lowest level since the beginning of August. In the country, gold price remained around 41.2 - 41.5 million dong / tael, instead of 43-44 million dong / tael like 3 months ago.

Gold prices lost their attraction when global trade tensions dropped sharply. Meanwhile, riskier assets such as securities have the opportunity to break out. The global stock indexes are in green, especially the US Dow Jones set a record of 28,000 points on November 7, while the remaining indexes on Wall Street also recorded a record high closing on this day.

Predicting the short-term future of gold, international analysts believe that, with the technical foundation as well as economic and geopolitical factors today, this precious metal will be hard to boom. Even if there is an increase, it will only fluctuate in the range 1,470 - 1,500 USD / ounce or will even face the next decline if the threshold of 1,450 USD is broken.

If in the past, the festival season in India, China and other Asian countries at the end of the year with strong demand for gold will support the precious metal price, in recent years this demand has not affected the market significantly and this year is also expected to be no exception. However, it is likely that gold prices will have noticeable waves after Christmas and New Year when statistics show that gold prices will often rise sharply after long holidays of Western countries.

A little further afield, the future of gold price will be greatly affected by Fed policies. When the US Federal Reserve loosens monetary policy, real interest rates will fall and help gold become a more attractive investment channel. However, since the session ended on October 30 with the 3rd interest rate cut this year, the Fed has signaled that it will not lower interest rates in the near future until the trend of the background. The US economy is clearer, which is not very good news for precious metals.

Still looking back in 2019, gold prices have had a good impression with a rise of more than 20% to date - one of the best rising years, and recorded the highest level set in the past 6 years - with the world gold of more than 1,500 USD / ounce and domestic gold reach 44 million per tael.

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