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What can the trade surplus of US $ 7 billion show us?

Monday 11, 11 2019
"Vietnam's trade balance in 10 months of 2019 is estimated at 7 billion USD, higher than 6.4 billion USD in the same period. The above-mentioned trade surplus is equivalent to 2.9% of the nominal GDP of Vietnam in 2019. The remarkable point in this year's trade data is the export turnover of the domestic economic sector, "said the report of the Vietnam Dragon Securities Company (VDS).
What can the trade surplus of US $ 7 billion show us?

The total import-export turnover of Vietnam in the first 10 months of 2019 is estimated at 428 billion USD, up 8.3% over the same period last year. In particular, the export turnover reached US $ 217 billion, up 7.9% and the import turnover reached US $ 211 billion, up 8.8%.

Vietnam's trade balance in 10 months of 2019 is estimated at 7 billion USD, higher than 6.4 billion USD in the same period. The above-mentioned trade surplus is equivalent to 2.9% of the nominal GDP of Vietnam in 2019. The remarkable point in this year's trade data is associated with the export turnover of the domestic economic sector.

The total size reached US $ 66.6 billion in the first 10 months of 2019 and grew by 16.5% over the same period in 2018, outstripping the growth rate of 3.9% compared to the same period last year of the FDI sector, accounting for $ 150.4 billion.

While the export turnover of the FDI sector has started to slow down since the middle of 2018, the double-digit growth rate of the domestic sector has continuously maintained since the beginning of 2017.

According to VDS, the data above describes two existing realities in parallel. On the one hand, Vietnamese businesses are more deeply involved in global value chains and supply goods to large buyers. Typically, it produces furniture, textiles, plastics, telephone components, wires, and steel.

On the other hand, VDS recognizes the legal risk of the origin of Vietnamese-labeled goods to the US showing signs of increase when export turnover to this market has increased sharply, up 26.6% in the first 10 months of 2019. This was previously mentioned by VDS to enterprises in the wood and furniture industry, especially in Binh Duong province.

Recently, the authorities of Vietnam and the United States have cooperated to stop a block of aluminum exports worth 4.3 billion USD, originating from China and preparing to be exported to the US.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade also said a number of commodity groups are listed as alerting by the risky level. Plywood is a fixed level 4 item, the highest level of danger. It is followed by iron storage racks, foam cushions, electric bicycles, truck and passenger car tires, and corrosion-resistant steel of warning group 3.

However, the US Consulate General in Ho Chi Minh, Marie Damour emphasized that Vietnam - US trade relations will continue to develop. And with the recent actions of the Vietnamese leaders, through the Resolution of attracting FDI capital or developing standards of goods originating from Vietnam to avoid the situation of circumventing commercial law.

Leaving aside the aforementioned problem, up to now, the production and business results of the processing - manufacturing sector are still better than expected and contribute to prolonging the economic growth cycle of Vietnam.

According to data from the General Statistics Office, the industrial production index of the whole industry increased by 9.2%, higher than 7.7% of the same period last year.

The highlight is associated with the production of electrical and electronic equipment when growing respectively 8.3% and 17.7% while the same period grew negatively.

The above situation is clearly illustrated through industrial production activities in Bac Ninh, Thai Nguyen, and Hai Phong. According to a report from the Thai Nguyen Statistical Office, smartphone items increased by 17.2% in October 2019 and by 8.3% in 10M / 2019.

In Bac Ninh, the outstanding growth of smart wearable products, 11 times more than October 2018, is the main highlight contributing to the growth of industrial production growth of this province in the recent 2 months.

In Hai Phong, LG Group recorded revenue in all three phone lines, telecommunication components and electrical appliances, up 54.6% YoY. Recently, LD Display Hai Phong has adjusted to increasing its investment capital by 410 million USD.

"According to our assessment, in the context of manufacturing activities of countries in the region and around the world are facing difficulties due to the slowdown of global trade, the maintenance of stable growth around 10% of Vietnam is a positive point, "the report said.

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