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Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 18 – 2021)

Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 18 – 2021)

Monday 17, 05 2021

Vietnam’s macro-economic overview

Although domestic consumption could not fully recover while demand in the world market continued to weaken due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, Vietnam’s economy still recorded positive growth in industrial production as well as trade and investment activities in the first four months of 2021. This will significantly contribute to promoting growth for 2021, and lay the foundation for faster economic growth in 2022.

In the context of the recovery in production and business activities, the total realized FDI capital in the first four months of 2021 reached 5.5 billion USD, which is an increase of 6.8% over the same period last year. In particular, the average size of newly licensed projects and projects with capital adjustment both increased compared to the same period in 2020. Specifically, there was an increase from 6.9 million USD / new project in the first four months of 2020 to 18.7 million USD / new project in 4 months of 2021.

Vietnam’s macro-economic overview

According to the latest report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), with the pandemic being under good control, Vietnam's economy is forecast to grow by 6.7% in 2021 and 7% in 2022. Specifically, the growth drivers will be the processing and manufacturing industries, accelerating investment activity and an improvement in commercial performance. In addition, the growth momentum has also been supported by reform programs aimed at improving the business environment along with Vietnam's active participation in 15 Free Trade Agreements with most developed economies in the world.

However, the domestic economy is still facing many risks in the context that Vietnam is still heavily dependent on international trade. The most prominent one is a resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 virus variants in a number of countries and the uneven global rollout of the Covid-19 vaccination program that could hinder Vietnam’s economic growth.

Weekly financial - monetary situation and forecasts

Exchange rate

In the past week, the USD / VND exchange rate decreased on both official and unofficial markets. At VCB, compared to the previous week, the exchange rate of USD / VND decreased by 25 VND / USD to 22,930 VND / USD (purchased) and 23,140 VND / USD (sold), respectively. Compared to the beginning of 2021, the USD / VND has decreased by 50 VND / USD.  

On the unofficial market, the USD / VND exchange decreased by 20 VND / USD on both buying and selling sides, to 23,630 VND / USD and 23,680VND / USD, respectively.

Exchange rate

At the State Bank of Vietnam, the USD / VND exchange rate was stable at 23,125 VND / USD, which is 730 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price. Compared to the previous week, the USD exchange rate on the selling side decreased by 23 VND / USD to 23,8205 VND / USD and was 50 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price.

Meanwhile, the central exchanged rate announced by the State Bank applicable to April 28, 2021 was 23,160 VND / USD, down 23 VND / USD compared to the rate announced the previous week.

Gold price

The world gold price decreased in the context of investors directing cash flow to other more profitable investment channels. The US economy has shown positive signs of recovery and is expected to grow strongly from the end of the second quarter of 2021. However, gold is forecasted to have a positive outlook in the near future. The complicated and unpredictable developments of the COVID-19 pandemic with a fast spreading rate in India, Japan, Korea, and Thailand has undermined investors’ confidence in a cyclical recovery.

At the end of the week, spot gold price was 1,769 USD / oz. Gold futures price in June 2021 on Comex New York was1,778 USD / oz. On the Kitco trading exchange, gold prices were 1,783.4 – 1,784.4 USD / oz.

Gold price

World gold price was about 49.33 million VND / tael, which is 6.2 million VND lower than the domestic gold price.

The domestic gold prices also experienced a decrease. In Hanoi, SJC gold price decreased by 130 thousand VND / tael on the selling side and by 150 thousand VND / tael on the buying sides, to 55.30 – 55.67million VND / tael.

Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade

Compiled by Vietnam Credit

Categories
Banking & Finance

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