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Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 1 – 2021)

Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 1 – 2021)

Thursday 07, 01 2021

Vietnam’s macro-economic overview

Vietnam's GDP growth in 2020 is estimated to increase by 2.91% over the previous year. In particular, GDP growth in the first quarter was 3.68%, in the second quarter 0.39%, in the third quarter 2.69% and in the fourth quarter 4.48%.
Vietnam’s macro-economic overview
The agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 2.68%, contributing 13.5% to the general growth; the industrial and construction sector increased by 3.98%, contributing 53%; and the service sector increased by 2.34%, contributing 33.5%.

Meanwhile, inflation has been well controlled. Consumer price index (CPI) in December 2020 increased by only 0.1% over the previous month and by 0.19% over the same period last year due to the increase in the prices of gasoline. The rice price increased in line with the export rice price. On average, in 2020, the CPI increased by 3.23% compared to 2019, meeting the inflation control target of 4% set by the National Assembly and the Government.

Industrial production in the fourth quarter of 2020 experienced a growth rate of 4.8% over the same period last year. For 2020, the added value of industrial production increased by 3.36% compared to 2019, of which the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 5.82%, playing a key role in the Vietnamese economy.

Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in the fourth quarter of 2020 still increased by 8% over the same period last year. Although the total retail sales of consumer goods and services in 2020 increased by only 2.6% compared to the previous year, which is the lowest increase in the 2011-2020 period, it can be said to be a success amid the Covid-19 outbreak.

Weekly financial - monetary situation and forecasts

Exchange rate

In the past week, the USD / VND exchange rate on the official market decreased, but experienced a sharp increase on the unofficial market. At VCB, compared to the previous week, the exchange rate of USD / VND decreased by 30 VND / USD, to 22,980 VND / USD (buying side) and 23,190 VND / USD (selling side). Compared to the beginning of 2020, the USD / VND has decreased by 40 VND / USD. 

On the unofficial market, the USD / VND exchange rate increased by 120 VND / USD on the buying side and increased by 110 VND / USD on the selling side, to 23,370 VND / USD and 23,400 VND / USD, respectively.
Exchange rate
At the State Bank of Vietnam, the USD / VND exchange rate was stable at 23,125 VND / USD, which is 710 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price. Compared to the previous week, the USD exchange rate on the selling side decreased by 22 VND / USD to 23,785 VND / USD and was 50 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price.

Meanwhile, the central exchanged rate announced by the State Bank applicable to December 30, 2020 was 23,141 VND / USD, down 21 VND / USD compared to the rate announced the previous week. Since early 2020, the central exchanged rate has been adjusted to decrease by 32 VND / USD (equivalent to a decrease of 0.14%). 

Gold price

The world gold price increased in the context of dollar devaluation and the complicated Covid-19 epidemic. Gold prices increased due to high investment demand. Investors see gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation when governments simultaneously launch stimulus packages with an unprecedented scale to overcome the damage caused by the Covid-19 epidemic. Gold prices are forecast to remain high. Although the world economy is likely to recover after the Covid-19 epidemic, low interest rates and global loose monetary policy will continue to support the gold market.
Gold Price
At the end of the week, spot gold price was 1,884 USD / oz. Gold futures price in February 2021 on Comex New York was 1,889 USD / oz. On the Kitco trading exchange, spot gold prices were at 1,878.70 - 1,879.70 USD / oz, up 5.6 USD / oz (equivalent to an increase of 0.3%) compared to the previous week.

World gold price was about 52.57 million VND / tael, which is 3.38 million VND lower than the domestic gold price.
Domestically, the price of gold has increased. Specifically, in Hanoi, SJC gold bought-in and sold-out prices were55.55 and 56.07 million dong / tael, respectively.

Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade
Compiled by VietnamCredit

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