According to the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's coffee exports in September 2021 reached 94.5 thousand tons, with a turnover of 196.4 million USD, down 11.7% in volume and 8.3% in turnover compared to August 2021; up 3.2% in volume and 13.9% in turnover compared to September 2020. Generally, in the first nine months of 2021, Vietnam's coffee exports reached 969 thousand tons, with a turnover of 1.869 billion USD, down 10.0% in volume but up 0.04% in turnover compared to the same period in 2020.
The average export price of coffee in the first nine months of 2021 reached $1,928.7 per ton, up 11.2% over the same period in 2020.
In the first nine months of 2021, Vietnam's coffee exports to the main markets of the EU and the US decreased compared to the same period in 2020. Exports to the EU market decreased by 14.7% in volume and decreased by 14.7%. 4.4% in turnover, reaching 427.9 thousand tons, turnover of 769.6 million USD. Exports to the US market decreased by 13.9% in volume and 5.1% in turnover, reaching 96.5 thousand tons, turnover of 189.4 million USD.
(First nine months of 2021)
The Covid-19 pandemic has dealt a blow on the export activities of Vietnam's coffee industry in the first nine months of 2021. However, with signals from the recovery of major economies such as the EU, the US, exports Vietnam's coffee exports will grow in the last months of 2021. In particular, coffee exports to the EU market are considered to be more positive when the demand for coffee products in the EU is still very large.
According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), coffee consumption in the EU has not been severely affected by the global crisis. The Covid-19 pandemic has only had a negative impact on the EU coffee market in the short term. The EU's coffee import market capacity is very large in a long-term outlook, so the Vietnamese coffee industry still has many opportunities to exploit this huge potential market.
The EU has been Vietnam’s largest coffee-consuming market, accounting for 44.2% of the total volume and 41.2% of the total export turnover. Vietnam’s coffee export turnover into the EU can increase in the future thanks to the advantage of the export tax rate reduced from 15% to 0%.
Coffee price is predicted to increase in the coming time since there is an excess demand happening. The two largest coffee supplying countries, Brazil and Vietnam, may experience a delay in harvesting due to weather factors. With the supply dropping, the coffee price may rise in line with excess demand.
The scarceness of the coffee supply may last for three years due to climate change and the impact of COVID-19. While the supply of coffee will continue to decrease due to the impact of the pandemic, demand for this product will increase in the coming months. That will be the scenario at least in Europe and the US, when COVID-19 restrictions are eased, with many shops and coffee chains reopening.
Even though there are many difficulties ahead, market analysts still believe that the pandemic prevention and control measures will soon be removed step by step. Fitch Solutions assesses that temporary interruptions and breaks in Vietnam's coffee exports will only be short-term.
According to the Vietnam Coffee - Cocoa Association, the 10-year cycle of the coffee industry is returning, and the coffee price is expected to peak at the end of the year, which will benefit Vietnamese coffee farmers.
Source: The Ministry of Industry and Trade
Compiled by VietnamCredit