The economic picture in November featured a bright spot coming from exports as this sector marked the third consecutive month of growth over the same period, after a period of unprecedented sharp decline.
Specifically, according to the General Statistics Office, export turnover of goods in November was estimated at 31.08 billion USD, down 3.6% over the previous month and up 6.7% over the same period last year. Previously, exports suffer from a negative growth lasting from November 2022 (except for February, which increased by 11.7% over the same period). However, compared to the previous month, exports decreased by 3.6%.
In terms of products, the two products with the strongest growth in November over the same period were textile fibers and yarns of all kinds (up 92%), and cameras, camcorders and components (up 71%).
In 11 months of the year, export turnover was estimated to reach 322.5 billion USD (down 6% over the same period). Items with the sharpest decline in export turnover over the same period include chemicals (down 24%), seafood (down 19%), and wood (down 18%).
Meanwhile, agricultural products grew impressively in the first 11 months of the year compared to the same period, including rice (up 36%), cashew nuts (up 17%), and vegetables and fruits (up 74%).
Previously, experts all agreed that exports in the last quarter of the year would see a positive growth over the same period, partly thanks to the low base.
At a recent event, Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thanh, economist, Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management, stated his opinion that if the global economy, including the US, had a soft landing, Vietnam’s exports to this market would be restored. In addition, the export motivation in 2024 will be very clear if China's economy does not get too bad.
However, he said that there are still many uncertainties in global economic growth, so it is forecasted that Vietnam's exports in 2024 will increase by about 5-7%.
Mr. Tran Ngoc Bau, CEO of WiGroup, opined that it is difficult to expect the export sector to recover strongly in 2024 and consumer sentiment to improve because the economies of Vietnam's major partner countries are forecast to remain weak in the coming year.
He reiterated the forecasts of organizations, according to which US GDP growth could reach 2.4% in 2023, but in 2024 it will be even lower at 1.5%. At the same time, the 2024 inflation forecast also decreased to 2.7%, from the 2023 forecast of 3.8%.
China's economy is forecast to grow 4.7% in 2024, and 5.2% in 2023. Meanwhile, the EU is forecast to recover slightly.
Contrary to signs of improvement from exports, Vietnam's manufacturing PMI in November decreased to 47.3 points, the lowest in 5 months.
According to S&P Global, weak demand caused the number of new orders to decrease again in November, from which output also decreased further. Companies also cut jobs and purchases and appeared hesitant to stockpile inventories.
Mr. Dang Quang Dong, Head of Investment Consulting Department for Individual Customers, Rong Viet Securities Company (VDSC) commented that the PMI continued to be below the 50-point threshold, showing that domestic and world demand is still weak. And this is the index investors need to monitor during this period.
Sharing the same opinion, the HSBC analysis team in a newly released report said that Vietnam still needs to be cautious about trade prospects because demand for goods in major trading partners is not positive.
Regarding some macro indicators of Vietnam's three major trading partners, US GDP growth in the third quarter of 2023 reached 4.9% compared to the previous quarter. Meanwhile, Europe will be facing the risk of a technical recession if GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 is negative compared to the third quarter.
In China, the country's third quarter GDP growth reached 4.9% over the same period. Previously, growth reached 4.6% in the first quarter and 6.3% in the second quarter.
The PMI of China and the European region remained below the threshold of 50 points, reaching 49.5 and 43 points respectively in October, while the US manufacturing PMI reached 50 points.
Source: S&P Global, GSO, vietnambiz
Compiled by VietnamCredit
