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Vietnam’s economic overview (3Q2022)

Vietnam’s economic overview (3Q2022)

Saturday 01, 10 2022
Vietnam’s GDP in 9 months of 2022 increased by 8.83% compared to the same period last year. This is also the highest increase of 9 months in the period 2011-2022.

Covid 19

1. GDP growth

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2022 was estimated to increase by 13.67% compared to the same period last year when the Covid-19 epidemic broke out and was at its peak, seriously affecting production and business activities. In particular, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 3.24%; the industrial and construction sector increased by 12.91%; and service sector increased by 18.86%.

GDP

Regarding GDP use in the third quarter of 2022, final consumption increased by 10.08% over the same period last year, contributing 38.21% to the overall growth rate of the economy; accumulated assets increased by 8.7%, contributing 21.13%; exports of goods and services increased by 9.32%; imports of goods and services increased by 2.72%; the difference between import and export of goods and services contributed 40.66%.

The 9 months’ GDP increased by 8.83% compared to the same period last year, the highest increase of 9 months in the period 2011-2022. Production and business activities gradually regained growth momentum, which means the government’s recovery policies and socio-economic development has been brought into full play. In the general economic growth, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 2.99%, contributing 4.04%; the industrial and construction sector increased by 9.44%, contributing 41.79%; the service sector increased by 10.57%, contributing 54.17%.

Agriculture - VietnamCredit

Forestry - VietnamCredit

Fishery - Vietnamcredit

In the field of agriculture, forestry and fishery, the livestock industry develops stably while timber exploitation has been promoted; aquaculture production has increased to meet the demand for domestic consumption and export. In the first nine months of 2022, the agricultural sector grew by 2.43% over the same period last year, contributing 0.22 percentage points to the increase in total added value of the whole economy; the forestry sector increased by 5.2% but accounted for a low proportion, so it only contributed 0.03 percentage points; the fisheries sector increased by 4.43%, contributing 0.12 percentage points.

In the industrial and construction sector, industrial sector tends to recover quickly with a growth of 9.63% over the same period last year, contributing 3.25 percentage points to the growth rate of total added value of the whole economy. In particular, the processing and manufacturing industry is the growth engine of the whole economy with an increase of 10.69%, only lower than the growth rate of the same period in 2011, 2017 and 2018, contributing 2.74 percentage points. Construction industry increased by 8.55%, contributing 0.59 percentage points.

The service sector grew strongly with the growth rate of 9 months of 2022 reaching 10.57 %. The wholesale and retail sector increased by 10.24% over the same period last year, contributing 1 percentage point; the transportation and warehousing industry increased by 14.2%, contributing 0.83 percentage points; the accommodation and food service sector had the highest increase in the service sector with an increase of 41.7%, contributing 0.81 percentage points; financial, banking and insurance activities increased by 9.05%, contributing 0.52 percentage points; the information and communication sector increased by 7.65%, contributing 0.5 percentage points. Particularly, the health sector and social assistance activities decreased by 2.67% because the Covid-19 epidemic was under control.

Regarding the structure of the economy in the first nine months of 2022, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector accounted for 11.27%; industry and construction accounted for 38.69%; service sector accounted for 41.31%; product tax minus product subsidies accounted for 8.73%.

As for GDP use in the same period, final consumption increased by 7.26% over the same period in 2021, contributing 44.46% to the overall growth of the economy; accumulated assets increased by 5.59%, contributing 18.46%; exports of goods and services increased by 8.94%; imports of goods and services increased by 4.74%; the difference between import and export of goods and services contributed 37.08%.

2. Industrial production

The index of industrial production (IIP) in the first nine months of 2022 was estimated to increase by 9.63% over the same period last year. Specifically, the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 10.69%, contributing 2.74 percentage points; electricity production and distribution increased by 7.71%, contributing 0.31 percentage points; the water supply and waste and wastewater treatment industry increased by 7.03%, contributing 0.04 percentage points; the mining industry increased by 4.42%, contributing 0.15 percentage points.

Consumption index of the processing and manufacturing industry in September 2022 increased by 2.3% compared to the previous month and by 8.8% over the same period last year. In the first nine months of 2022, the consumption index of this industry increased by 9.7% over the same period in 2021.

As of September 30, 2022, the inventory index of the entire processing and manufacturing industry was estimated to increase by 7.3% over the same period last month and 13.4% over the same period last year. The average inventory rate of the whole processing and manufacturing industry in 9 months of 2022 is 76.4%.

Industrial production - VietnamCredit

3. Business registration

In September, there were 11,466 newly established enterprises, which is a decreaase of 3.8% compared to the previous month yet an increase of 194.1 % over the same period last year. There were also 5,118 enterprises returning to operation, down 20.7% over the previous month and up 54.3% over the same period in 2021; 2,935 enterprises registered to suspend business for a definite time, down 21.9% and up 31%. There were 4,187 enterprises stopped operation for dissolution procedures, down 6% and up 66.9%; 1,516 enterprises completed dissolution procedures, down 22.4% and up 150.2%.

In the first 9 months of the year, there were 163.3 thousand enterprises registered for new establishment and returning to operation, up 38.6% over the same period last year. On average, there are 18.1 thousand newly established and re-operated businesses per month. The number of enterprises withdrawing from the market was 112.7 thousand enterprises, an increase of 24.8% over the same period last year; On average, 12.5 thousand businesses withdraw from the market every month.

Business registration -VietnamCredit

4. Investment

Realized social investment capital in the third quarter of 2022 at current prices was estimated at VND 833.8 trillion, up 18.1% over the same period last year. It is estimated that in the first 9 months of 2022, the total realized investment capital at current prices reached VND 2,130.3 trillion, up 12.5% over the same period last year.

As of September 20, 2022, the total foreign investment capital registered in Vietnam including newly registered capital, adjusted registered capital and capital contribution and share purchase by foreign investors reached nearly $18.75 billion, down 15.3% over the same period last year.

Realized foreign direct investment capital in Vietnam in the first nine months of 2022 was estimated at $15.43 billion, up 16.3% over the same period last year. This is the highest amount of foreign direct investment capital realized in 9 months in the past 5 years.

Regarding Vietnam's investment abroad in the same period, there were 80 projects newly granted investment certificates with a total capital by Vietnamese investor reaching $347.4 million, 2.3 times higher than the same period last year.

Investment - VietnamCredit

5. Retail sales of consumer goods and services

Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in September was estimated at VND 493.1 trillion, up 2.9% over the previous month and 36.1% over the same period last year. Generally for the first nine months of 2022, the total retail sales of consumer goods and services is estimated at VND 4,170.2 trillion, up 21% over the same period last year.

Telecom revenue in the third quarter of 2022 was estimated at VND 79.9 trillion, up 8.1% over the same period last year. In the first nine months of 2022, telecommunications revenue was estimated at VND 248.5 trillion, up 7.1% over the same period last year.

The number of international visitors to Vietnam in September reached 431.9 thousand arrivals, down 11.2% compared to the previous month but 45.4 times higher than the same period last year because Vietnam has opened touris and international routes have been restored. In the first nine months of 2022, international visitors to Vietnam reached 1,872.9 thousand arrivals, 16.4 times higher than the same period last year but still down 85.4% compared to the same period in 2019 when the pandemic had not yet broken out.

Retail sales

6. Finance and banking

As of September 20, 2022, the total means of payment increased by 2.49% compared to the end of 2021; capital mobilization from credit institutions increased by 4.04%; and credit growth of the economy reached 10.54%.

The insurance market continued to achieve steady growth. Generally, for the first nine months of 2022, the total premium revenue of the entire insurance market was estimated to increase by 17% over the same period last year, of which the premium revenue of the life insurance sector is estimated to increase by 17% while that of the non-life insurance sector is estimated to increase by 18%.

In the 9 months of 2022, on the stock market, the average trading value reached VND 22,743 billion/session, down 14.5% compared to the previous year's average. The average transaction value of the bond market reached VND 9,326 billion/session, down 18.2%. As for the derivatives market, its trading volume reached 30.4 million rights/session, up 43% compared to the average in 2021 and the trading value reached VND 26.28 billion/session, down 63%.

7. Imports & exports of goods and services

a) Imports & exports of goods

The export turnover of goods in September 2022 was estimated at $ 29.94 billion, down 14.3% over the previous month and up 10.3% over the same period last year. In the third quarter of 2022, export turnover was estimated at $96.5 billion, up 17.2% over the same period last year and down 0.5% compared to the second quarter of 2022. In the first nine months of 2022, export turnover of goods was estimated at $282.52 billion, up 17.3% over the same period last year.

Regarding the structure of goods export in the first nine months of 2022, processed industrial products accounted for 89%, up 17.2% over the same period last year.

The import turnover of goods in September 2022 was estimated at $28.8 billion, down 7.3% over the previous month and up 6.4% over the same period last year. In the third quarter of 2022, import turnover was estimated at $90.7 billion, up 8.1% over the same period last year and down 7.1% compared to the second quarter of 2022. In the first nine months of 2022, import turnover of goods was estimated at $276 billion, up 13% over the same period last year.

Regarding the structure of imported goods in the first nine months of 2022, capital goods accounted for 93.9%, up 0.1 percentage point over the same period last year.

As for the export and import markets of goods in the first nine months of 2022, the United States was the largest export market of Vietnam with an estimated turnover of $86.3 billion. China was Vietnam's largest import market with an estimated turnover of $91.6 billion. In the first nine months of 2022, trade surplus to the EU market was estimated at $24.3 billion, up 48.2% over the same period last year while trade deficit from China was $51.5 billion, up 21.3%.

The balance of trade in goods in September was estimated to have a surplus of $1.14 billion. In the first 9 months of 2022, it was estimated that there would be a trade surplus of $6.52 billion (the same period last year, there was a trade deficit of $3.44 billion).

Imports & exports - Vietnamcredit

b) Imports & exports of services

In the third quarter of 2022, service export turnover was estimated at $3.8 billion, up 174.6% over the same period in 2021 and 34.2% higher than the previous quarter. Service import turnover was estimated at $6.9 billion, up 36.7% over the same period last year and up 4.4% compared to the previous quarter.

In the first nine months of 2022, service export turnover was estimated at $8.2 billion, up 118.4% over the same period in 2021. Service import turnover was estimated at $19.4 billion USD, up 28.5% over the same period last year.

8. Consumer price index and inflation

The consumer price index (CPI) in September 2022 increased by 0.4% compared to the previous month. This is mainly due to the increase in the price of essential consumer goods and services in line with the price of input materials and the increase in tuition fees in some localities. Compared to December 2021, September’s CPI increased by 4.01%, and compared to the same period last year, it increased by 3.94%.

Average CPI in the third quarter of 2022 increased by 3.32% compared to the third quarter of 2021. On average in 9 months of this year, CPI increased by 2.73% over the same period last year; core inflation increased by 1.88%.

The gold price index in September 2022 decreased by 1.71% compared to the previous month; increased by 1.34% compared to December 2021, and increased by 4.06% over the same period last year.

The US dollar price index in September 2022 increased by 0.53% compared to the previous month; increased 2.87% compared to December 2021 and increased 3.45% over the same period last year.

Source: GSO

Compiled by VietnamCredit

Categories
Vietnam Economy

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