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Vietnam’s 2022 socio-economic overview

Vietnam’s 2022 socio-economic overview

Saturday 31, 12 2022
The General Statistics Office has just released the report on Vietnam’s socio-economic development in 2022. Accordingly, it is estimated that GDP in 2022 increased by 8.02% over the previous year due to the recovery of the economy.

A brief into Vietnam social conditions in 2022

The population of Vietnam in 2022 is estimated at 99.46 million people, an increase of 955.5 thousand people (equivalent to an increase of 0.97%) compared to 2021. The number of urban population is 37.09 million people, accounting for 37.3%; that of rural population is 62.37 million. The sex ratio of the population in 2022 is 99.5 males/100 females.

The country's labor force aged 15 and over in the fourth quarter of 2022 was estimated at 52.1 million people, an increase of 0.3 million people compared to the previous quarter and an increase of 1.4 million people over the same period last year. In general, in 2022, the labor force aged 15 and over is 51.7 million people, an increase of 1.1 million people compared to 2021.

The number of employed laborers aged 15 and over in the fourth quarter of 2022 were estimated at 51 million people, an increase of 239.4 thousand people compared to the previous quarter. In general, this year, the number of laborers aged 15 and over who are employed is 50.6 million people. Specifically, there were 13.9 million people working in agriculture, forestry and fishery sector, down 2.5% compared to the previous year; the industrial and construction sector employed 17 million people, up 4.5%; 19.7 million people worked in the service sector was, up 6.1%.

In general, in 2022, the unemployment rate of working age is 2.32%, of which the rate in the urban area is 2.79%; the rural area is 2.03%. The youth unemployment rate (from 15-24 years old) is estimated at 7.72%, of which the rate in the urban area is 9.7%; rural area is 6.68%. The underemployment rate of laborers in working age is 2.21%, of which the underemployment rate in urban areas is 1.7%; the underemployment rate in rural areas is 2.51%.

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Economic overview

1. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2022 was estimated to increase by 5.92% over the same period last year. Despite being higher than the growth rate of 4.7% and 5.17% of the same period in 2020 and 2021, it is still lower than the growth rate of the fourth quarter of the years 2011-2019. In particular, agriculture, forestry and fishery sector grew by 3.85%; the industrial and construction sector grew by 4.22%; service sector grew by 8.12%. Regarding the use of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022, final consumption increased by 7.12% over the same period last year, contributing 82.6% to the overall growth rate; accumulated assets increased by 5.61%, contributed 43.78%; exports of goods and services decreased by 6.14%; imports of goods and services decreased by 4.83%.

Vietnamcredit GDP

It is estimated that GDP in 2022 increased by 8.02% over the previous year due to the fact that the economy has recovered and reached the highest growth rate in the period 2011-2022. In the general growth rate of the economy, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector grew by 3.36%, contributing 5.11% to the growth rate of total added value of the whole economy; the industrial and construction sector increased by 7.78%, contributing 38.24%; the service sector increased by 9.99%, contributing 56.65%.

The agriculture, forestry and fishery sector continued to play the role of the supporting platform of the economy. The agricultural sector grew by 2.88%, contributing 0.27 percentage points to the growth rate of total added value of the whole economy; forestry increased by 6.13%, contributing 0.03 percentage points; the fishery sector increased by 4.43%, contributing 0.12 percentage points.

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In the industry and construction sector, the processing and manufacturing industry continued to be the growth engine of the whole economy with an increase of 8.10%, contributing 2.09 percentage points to the growth rate of the whole economy. Water supply, management and treatment of waste and wastewater increased by 7.45%, contributing 0.04 percentage points. Electricity production and distribution increased by 7.05%, contributing 0.26 percentage points. Mining industry increased by 5.19%, contributing 0.17 percentage points. Construction industry increased 8.17%, contributing 0.59 percentage points.

The service sector recovered and grew strongly with the growth rate in 2022 reaching 9.99%, the highest in the period 2011-2022. Some services saw a sharp increasw, contributing a lot to the growth rate of total added value of the whole economy as follows: Wholesale and retail increased by 10.15% over the previous year, contributing 0.97 percent points; transportation and warehousing increased by 11.93%, contributing 0.69 percentage points; the accommodation and food service sector had the highest increase in the service sector with an increase of 40.61%, contributing 0.79 percentage points; financial, banking and insurance activities increased by 9.03%, contributing 0.53 percentage points; information and communication industry increased by 7.80%, contributing 0.5 percentage points.

Regarding the economic structure in 2022, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector accounted for 11.88%; industrial and construction sector accounted for 38.26%; service sector accounted for 41.33%; product tax minus product subsidies accounted for 8.53%.

In terms of GDP use in 2022, final consumption increased by 7.18% compared to 2021, contributing 49.32% to the overall growth rate; accumulated assets increased by 5.75%, contributing 22.59%; exports of goods and services increased by 4.86%; imports of goods and services increased by 2.16%.

 GDP per capita in 2022 at current prices is estimated at VND 95.6 million/person, equivalent to USD 4,110, an increase of USD 393 compared to 2021. Labor productivity in 2022 at current prices is estimated at VND 188.1 million /employee (equivalent to USD 8,083 /employee, up USD 622 compared to 2021). At constant prices, labor productivity in 2022 increased by 4.8% due to improved qualifications of workers.

2. Industrial production

Industrial production in the fourth quarter of 2022 tended to slow down. The added value growth rate was estimated at 3.6% over the same period last year. For 2022, the added value of industrial production increased by 7.69% over the previous year. In particular, the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 8.10%, contributing 2.09 percentage points to the overall growth of the economy; electricity production and distribution increased by 7.05%, contributing 0.26 percentage points; water supply, management and treatment of waste and wastewater increased by 7.45%, contributing 0.04 percentage points; the mining industry increased by 5.19%, contributing 0.17 percentage points.

The index of industrial production (IIP) in the fourth quarter of 2022 increased by 3%, the lowest increase compared to the previous quarters of 2022 due to declining orders, high input costs and material shortages. The IIP in 2022 is estimated to increase by 7.8% over the previous year.

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Consumption index of the entire processing and manufacturing industry in December 2022 increased by 0.3% compared to the previous month and decreased by 0.6% over the same period last year. In general, in 2022, the consumption index of the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 7.1% compared to 2021.

As of December 31, 2022, the inventory index of the processing and manufacturing industry is estimated to increase by 10.1% over the last month and 13.9% over the same period last year. The average inventory rate of this industry in 2022 is 78.1%.

The number of employees working in industrial enterprises increased by 0.4% over the same period last month and by 0.3% over the same period last year.

3. Business activities

Business registration

In December, there were 10.8 thousand newly established enterprises, down 9.8% over the previous month and 4% over the same period last year. Besides, 6,104 enterprises have returned to operation, down 2.6% over the previous month and up 44.5% over the same period in 2021; 3,776 enterprises registered to suspend business for a definite time, down 5.7% and up 25.4%; 5,847 enterprises stopped operating waiting for dissolution procedures, up 14.8% and down 35.4%; 1,761 enterprises completed dissolution procedures, up 23.8% and down 6.2%.

In general, in 2022, there were 208.3 thousand enterprises registered for new establishment and return to operation, up 30.3% over the previous year. On average, there were 17.4 thousand enterprises newly established and re-operated per month. The number of enterprises withdrawing from the market was 143.2 thousand enterprises, an increase of 19.5%.

Vietnamcredit Business registration

Business trend

The survey results on business trends of enterprises in the processing and manufacturing industry in the fourth quarter of 2022 showed that: 32.6% of enterprises believed that their business performance was better than in the third quarter of 2022; 33.7% of enterprises said that the production and business situation was stable and 33.7% of enterprises said they were having difficulties. For the first quarter of 2023, 31.5% of enterprises assessed the trend would be better compared to the fourth quarter of 2022; 37.3% of enterprises think that the production and business situation will be stable and 31.2% of enterprises forecast more difficulties.

4. Services

Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in the fourth quarter of 2022 was estimated at VND 1,514.6 trillion, up 4.8% compared to the previous quarter and 17.1% over the same period last year. In 2022, the total retail sales of consumer goods and services is estimated at VND 5,679.9 trillion, up 19.8% over the previous year. Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in 2022 increased by 15% compared to 2019 - before the Covid-19 epidemic broke out.

Telecommunications revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 was estimated at VND 84.9 trillion, up 4.8% over the same period last year . In general, in 2022, telecommunications revenue is estimated at VND 333.9 trillion, up 6.7% over the previous year.

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International visitors to Vietnam in December reached 707.1 thousand arrivals, up 18.5% over the previous month and 41.2 times higher than the previous year because Vietnam has opened its borders and restored international routes. In general, in 2022, international visitors to Vietnam reached 3,661.2 thousand arrivals, 23.3 times higher than the previous year.

5. Banking, insurance, and securities

As of December 21, 2022, the total means of payment increased by 3.85% compared to the end of 2021; capital mobilization from credit institutions increased by 5.99%; credit growth of the economy reached 12.87%.

Premium revenue of the insurance market in the fourth quarter of 2022 was estimated to increase by 15.8% over the same period last year, of which premium revenue from life insurance increased by 15.6%, non-life insurance increased 16.4%. In general, in 2022, the premium revenue of the whole insurance market increased by 16.2% compared to the previous year, of which the premium revenue from the life insurance increased by 15.8%; the non-life insurance sector increased by 17.3%.

From the beginning of the year to December 2022, the average trading value on the stock market reached VND 20,410 billion/session, down 23.3% compared to the average of the previous year; average trading value on the bond market reached VND 7,737 billion/session, down 32.2%. The average trading volume on the derivatives market of futures products on the VN30 index reached 270,484 contracts/session, up 43%.

6. Investment

Realized social investment capital in the fourth quarter of 2022 at current prices was estimated at VND 1,089.1 trillion, up 8.5% over the same period last year. It is estimated that in 2022, the total realized social investment capital at current prices may reach VND 3,219.8 trillion, up 11.2% over the previous year.

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As of December 20, 2022, total foreign investment capital registered in Vietnam including newly registered capital, adjusted registered capital and capital contribution and share purchase by foreign investors reached nearly USD 27.72 billion, down 11% compared to the previous year.

Realized foreign direct investment capital in Vietnam in 2022 is estimated at nearly USD 22.4 billion, up 13.5% over the previous year. This is the highest amount of foreign direct investment in the past 5 years.

7. Import-export of goods & services

Import-export of goods

The export turnover of goods in December 2022 is estimated at USD 29.66 billion, up 2.2% over the previous month and down 14% over the same period last year. In the fourth quarter of 2022, export turnover is estimated at USD 89.5 billion, down 7.1% compared to the third quarter of 2022 and down 6.1% over the same period last year. For the whole year of 2022, export turnover of goods is estimated at USD 371.85 billion, up 10.6% over the previous year.

Regarding the structure of goods export in 2022, processed industrial products account for 89%.

Import turnover of goods in December 2022 was estimated at USD 29.16 billion, up 3.1% over the previous month and down 8.1% over the same period last year. In the fourth quarter of 2022, import turnover was estimated at USD 85.07 billion, down 5.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022 and down 3.9% over the same period last year. For the whole year of 2022, the import turnover of goods is estimated at USD 360.65 billion, up 8.4% over the previous year.

Vietnamcredit Import-export of goods

As for the structure of the goods import in 2022, capital goods accounted for 93.5%, equal to the previous year.

Regarding the export and import market of goods in 2022, the United States is the largest export market of Vietnam with an estimated turnover of USD 109.1 billion. China is Vietnam's largest import market with an estimated turnover of USD 119.3 billion.

The balance of trade in goods in December was estimated to have a trade surplus of USD 0.5 billion. For the whole year of 2022, the trade balance of goods is estimated to have a trade surplus of USD 11.2 billion.

Import-export of services

In the fourth quarter of 2022, service export turnover is estimated at USD 4.6 billion, up 204.2 percent over the same period in 2021 and 20 percent higher than the previous quarter; service import turnover was estimated at USD 6.1 billion, up 10.7% over the same period last year and down 10.9% from the previous quarter.

For the whole year of 2022, service export turnover is USD estimated at 12.9 billion, up 145.2% compared to 2021; service import turnover is estimated at USD 25.5 billion, up 23.6% over the previous year.

8. CPI and inflation

Consumer price index (CPI) in December 2022 decreased by 0.01% compared to the previous month, increased by 4.55% compared to December 2021. Average CPI in the fourth quarter of 2022 increased by 4.41% over the same period last year. For the whole year of 2022, CPI increased by 3.15% compared to 2021, reaching the target set by the National Assembly.

Average core inflation in 2022 increased by 2.59% compared to 2021, lower than the overall average CPI (up 3.15%), which reflects consumer price fluctuations mainly due to increasing food and gasoline prices.

Source: General Statistics Office

Compiled by VietnamCredit

 

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Vietnam Economy

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