Gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2020 is estimated to increase by 4.48% over the same period last year, which is the lowest growth of the fourth quarter between 2011 and 2020. The facts that the Covid-19 epidemic was strictly controlled; the economy gradually recovered; and the EU and Vietnam Free Trade Agreement took effect on August 1, 2020 have made GDP in the fourth quarter of 2020 get better than that in the third quarter.
Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2020 was 2.91%. Despite being the lowest growth rate in the period of 2011-2020, this is a great success of Vietnam in the context of the Covid-19, which negatively affects all socio-economic fields. With such annual growth, Vietnam is among the fastest growing economies in the world. This shows the efforts of the people, the business community and the government in overcoming difficulties.
Regarding the economic structure in 2020, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector accounted for 14.85%; industrial and construction sector accounted for 33.72%; service sector accounted for 41.63%; product tax minus product subsidies accounts for 9.8% (the corresponding structure in 2019 is: 13.96%; 34.49%; 41.64%; 9.91%, respectively).
As for the use of GDP in 2020, final consumption increased by 1.06% compared to 2019; asset accumulation increased by 4.12%; exports of goods and services rose by 4.97%; and imports of goods and services rose by 3.33%.
Quality of economic growth
Labor productivity at current prices in 2020 is estimated at 117.9 million VND / employee (equivalent to 5,081 USD / employee, an increase of 290 USD compared to 2019). At constant prices, labor productivity increased by 5.4% due to increasing qualifications of workers (the rate of trained workers with diplomas and certificates in 2020 reached 24.1%, higher than that in 2019).
Index of industrial production in 2020 was estimated to increase by 3.36% over the previous year. In particular, the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 5.82%, contributing 1.25 percentage points to the overall growth of the economy; electricity production and distribution increased 3.92%, contributing 0.19 percentage points; water supply, waste and wastewater management and treatment increased 5.51%, contributing 0.04 percentage points; mining decreased by 5.62%, contributing -0.36 percentage points.
Consumption index of the manufacturing sector in December 2020 decreased by 2.3% from the previous month and by 6.9% against the same period last year. For 2020, the consumption index of this sector increased by 3.3% over the previous year.
In 2020, there were 134.9 thousand newly established enterprises with a total registered capital of more than 2,235.6 trillion VND and total number of registered employees of 1,043 thousand employees. The average registered capital of a newly established enterprise in 2020 is 16.6 billion VND, an increase of 32.3% over the previous year. In addition, there were 44.1 thousand enterprises returning to operation, an increase of 11.9% compared to 2019.
Survey results on business trends in the manufacturing industry in the fourth quarter of 2020 showed that 40.6% of enterprises believed that their business performance in the fourth quarter of 2020 was better than that in the third quarter; 24.7% thought they were facing difficulties and 34.7% said that the business and production situation was stable. It is expected that in the first quarter, business performance of 42.8% of enterprises will improve; 19% of businesses forecast more difficulties and 38.2% think that the business and production situation will be stable.
Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in the fourth quarter of 2020 are estimated to reach 1,387.6 trillion VND, increasing by 6.4% over the previous quarter and by 8% over the same period last year. In 2020, the total retail sales of consumer goods and services reached 5,059.8 trillion VND, an increase of 2.6% compared to the previous year, if excluding the price factor, the figure would be 1.2%.
Revenue from telecommunications activities in the fourth quarter of 2020 was estimated at 102.8 trillion VND, decreasing by 1.3% over the same period last year (if the price factor were excluded, it would increase by 4.1%). For 2020, it is estimated to reach 381 trillion VND, decreasing by 0.6% against the previous year (if excluding the price factor, it would increase by 4.1%).
In 2020, the State Bank of Vietnam adjusted the operating rate to create conditions for the economy to recover quickly from the negative impacts of the Covid-19 epidemic. Insurance business has been developing stably and safely, while capital mobilization for the stock market increased by about 20% over the previous year.
As of December 21, 2020, capital mobilization of credit institutions had increased by 12.87 and credit growth had reached 10.14%.
Insurance premium revenue in the fourth quarter of 2020 was estimated to increase by 16% over the same period last year. It is estimated that 2020’s premium revenue increased by 17% over the previous year, of which life insurance premium revenue increased by 21%; and non-life insurance increased by 7%.
As of December 17, 2020, the total mobilization of capital for the stock market reached 383.6 trillion VND, an increase of 20% over the same period last year. The average transaction value on the stock market reached 7,056 billion VND / session, increasing by 51.5% compared to that in 2019.
Realized social investment capital at current prices in 2020 reached 2,164.5 trillion VND, increasing by 5.7% compared to the previous year and accounting for 34.4% of GDP. In particular, the state capital was 729 trillion VND, accounting for 33.7% of the total capital and increasing by 14.5% over the previous year; non-state capital was 972.2 trillion VND, accounting for 44.9% and increasing by 3.1%; FDI capital reached 463.3 trillion VND, accounting for 21.4% and decreasing by 1.3%.
As of December 20, 2020, total foreign investment capital, including newly registered capital, and capital contribution and share purchase of foreign investors, reached 28.5 billion USD, down 25% compared to 2019. There were 2,523 newly licensed projects with registered capital of 14.6 billion USD, down 35% in number of projects and 12.5% in registered capital. Realized FDI capital in 2020 is estimated at nearly 20 billion USD, down 2% from the previous year.
a) Export and import of goods
In 2020, the total export turnover of goods is estimated at 281.5 billion USD, up 6.5% compared to 2019. There were 31 items with an export turnover of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 91.9% of the total export turnover (6 items with an export turnover of over 10 billion USD, accounting for 64.3%).
Regarding the structure of export commodity, export value of heavy industrial goods and minerals is estimated at 152.5 billion USD, up 11.3% over the previous year, that of light industry and handicraft products is estimated at 100.3 billion USD, up 2.4%. Agricultural and forestry products recorded an export value of 20.3 billion USD, down 1.9%. Export value of seafood products reached 8.4 billion USD, down 1.8%.
The United States is Vietnam's largest export market with a turnover of 76.4 billion USD, an increase of 24.5% over the previous year; followed by China with 48.5 billion USD, up 17.1%; EU with 34.8 billion USD, down 2.7%; ASEAN with 23.1 billion USD, down 8.7%; Japan with 19.2 billion USD, down 5.7%; South Korea with 18.7 billion USD, down 5.1%.
Import turnover of goods is estimated at 262.4 billion USD, up 3.6% compared to 2019. In 2020, there were 35 items with import turnover of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 89.6% of the total import turnover.
Regarding the structure of goods import in 2020, import value of materials for production is estimated at 245.6 billion USD, up 4.1% from the previous year and accounting for 93.6% of the total import turnover. Consumer goods recorded an estimated import turnover of 16.8 billion USD, down 3.8% and accounting for 6.4%.
China is still the largest import market of Vietnam with a turnover of 83.9 billion VND, up 11.2% over the previous year; followed by South Korea with 46.3 billion USD, down 1.5%; ASEAN with 30 billion USD, down 6.9%; Japan with 20.5 billion USD, up 5%; EU with 14.5 billion USD, up 3.5%; the United States with 13.7 billion USD, down 4.9%.
It is estimated that in 2020, Vietnam enjoyed a trade surplus of 19.1 billion USD. In particular, domestic economic sector saw a trade deficit of 15.5 billion USD while foreign investment sector (including crude oil) witnessed a trade surplus of 34.6 billion USD.
b) Export and import of services
In 2020, service export turnover is estimated at 6.3 billion VND, down 68.4% compared to 2019. Service import turnover is estimated at 18.3 billion USD, down 14.5%. Trade deficit of services in 2020 is 12 billion USD, which is nearly 2 times the service export turnover.
Core inflation in December 2020 increased by 0.07% over the previous month and by 0.99% over the same period last year. Average core inflation in 2020 increased by 2.31% compared to that in 2019.
Domestic gold prices fluctuated in line with the world gold prices. Gold price index in 2020 increased by 28.05% against 2019.