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Vietnam financial - monetary weekly update (Week 45 – 2020)

Thursday 12, 11 2020
Vietnam financial - monetary weekly update  (Week 45 – 2020)

Vietnam’s macro-economic overview

Last week, Vietnam continued to put the Covid-19 epidemic under good control, and there were no new cases in the community. This is a very favorable condition to support the economy to recover and accelerate in the coming time.

As the Covid-19 epidemic is still well-controlled, there has been an increase in the number of new orders and production output of domestic companies. This makes an important contribution to the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). According to IHS Markit, Vietnam's PMI reached 51.8 in October 2020, which is a slight decrease from 52.2 in September 2020 yet shows an improvement in the manufacturing sector. If the epidemic is still well controlled, the manufacturing sector will experience a dramatic recovery in the last quarter of 2020 and in early 2021.

In the financial market, after the State Bank decided to reduce basic interest rates on September 30, the deposit interest rate level has been continuously adjusted to decrease at many commercial banks. This means from the beginning of May 2020 interest rates have seen a total decrease of 1.5 - 2.75% / year for all terms. Besides, the fact that the CPI continued to decline in October 2020 is also a favorable condition for the State Bank to maintain the current monetary policy.

Vietnam’s macro-economic overview

In the context of a sharp decrease in deposit interest rates, in order to divide the difficulties and provide timely support for small and medium enterprises to stabilize their production and business activities, and to overcome the negative impacts of the epidemic, many banks have recently reduced lending rates. With this development, it is expected that credit growth will be positive in the last 2 months of the year, making credit growth for the whole year reach about 9.5% -10%.

Weekly financial - monetary situation and forecasts

Exchange rate

In the past week, the USD / VND exchange rate remained stable in the official market but increased in the unofficial market. At VCB, compared to the previous week, the exchange rate of USD / VND stayed unchanged, at 23,060 VND / USD (buying side) and 23,270 VND / USD (selling side). Compared to the beginning of 2020, the USD / VND exchange rate on the selling side has increased by 40 VND / USD (equivalent to an increase of 0.17%). 

In the unofficial market, the USD / VND exchange rate increased by 10 VND / USD on the buying and by 30 VND / USD on the selling side, to 23,210 VND / USD and 23,250 VND / USD, respectively.

At the State Bank of Vietnam, the USD / VND exchange rate was stable at 23,175 VND / USD, which is 701 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price. Compared to the previous week, the USD exchange rate on the selling side decreased by 2 VND / USD to 23,846 VND / USD and was 50 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price.

Meanwhile, the central exchanged rate announced by the State Bank applicable to November 5, 2020 was 23,200 VND / USD, up 2 VND / USD (equivalent to an increase of 0.01%) compared to the rate announced the previous week. Since early 2020, the central exchanged rate has been adjusted to increase by 257VND / USD (equivalent to an increase of 0.12%). 

Gold price

The world gold price increased due to the facts USD value has been decreased, the epidemic has become more complicated and investors are waiting for the results of the US election.

At the end of the week, spot gold price was 1,909 USD / oz, which was an increase of 33 USD / oz (equivalent to an increase of 1.75%) compared to last week. Gold futures price in December 2020 on Comex New York was 1,909 USD / oz, up 32 USD / oz (equivalent to an increase of 1.7%) compared to the previous week. On the Kitco trading exchange, spot gold prices were at 1,903.40 - 1,904.40 USD / oz, up 25.7 USD / oz (equivalent to an increase of 1.36%) compared to the previous week.
World gold price was about 53.9 million VND / tael, which is 2.5 million VND lower than the domestic gold price.
Domestically, the price of gold has increased at some financial constitutions. Specifically, at Sacombank, gold price increased by 350 thousand VND / tael bought in and 300 thousand VND / tael sold. 

Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade
Compiled by VietnamCredit

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