Burdened by the disadvantages of international trade and growing instability, the global economy is expected to slow down in the next 5 years, in which many economies will be affected.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that China's economy will continue to decelerate and in the short term the share of this economy's contribution to global GDP growth will decline, from 32.7% in the period of 2018-2019 to 28.3% by 2024.
Also according to the IMF, global economic growth in 2019 will be 3%, the lowest since the financial crisis, with 90% of the world economy affected.
So which economies are currently the most important? And where will the global economic growth come from in the next 5 years? Bloomberg used IMF projections, adjusted by the purchasing power parity method, to determine the economic growth engines of the world economy.
The US is still expected to play a very important role, although it is expected to fall to No. 3, behind India. By 2024, the share of the US contribution will decrease from 13.8% to 9.2%, while that of India will increase to 15.5%.
Indonesia continues to hold the No. 4 position with the economy expected to contribute 3.7% of global economic growth, down slightly from the 3.9% of 2019.
The importance of the British economy will diminish, falling from No. 9 to No. 13.
Although the share of the Russian economy is currently only at 2% and is expected to remain at this level for the next 5 years, Russia will surpass Japan to rise to No. 5 as Japan is expected to slip to No. 9. Brazil will rise to the 6th
place from the 11th
place. The contribution of Germany remained unchanged at 1.6% and ranked 7th.
According to the IMF, the new growth engines in the top 20 over the next five years will be Turkey, Mexico, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, while Spain, Poland, Canada and Vietnam will be excluded from the top 20.