Lack of supply of apartments, townhouses, and villas is the situation occurred in the third quarter, although the market had good consumption. In the fourth quarter and 2020, many research and survey units said that the market will have new projects with large supply and the prices will increase.
According to the CBRE Vietnam representative, in the last quarter and 2020, the apartment market is expected to have about 42,000 more products with new projects, mainly in the suburban districts of the city. The Western region has projects such as AIO City, Akari City, and D-Home. The Southern region has the next phases of Eco Green Saigon, Sunshine City Saigon and new projects are Sunshine River, Lovera Vista.
The primary price will increase slightly compared to the third quarter and the average in 2019. The luxury segment will maintain a 10% year-on-year price increase due to tight supply. The high-end and mid-end segments will grow more slowly due to new supply and 2019 will set new prices. Price increases in these two segments are 6% and 5% annually. The affordable segment maintained a 3% YoY price increase.
Ms. Duong Thuy Dung, Senior Director of CBRE Vietnam, assessed that in 2019, with the impact of policies on the real estate market and credit market, it helped limit unqualified supply and create favorable conditions for the amount of inventory to be consumed. Although there are no head-to-head events, developers still have attractive events such as real estate exhibitions, urban development introduction events, topping-out ceremonies of ongoing projects, etc. This time, investors also take advantage of adjusting business strategies and land and product development plans. With active activities from developers, the market is expected to be more active in the next quarters.
For townhouses and villas, it is forecasted that in the last 3 months, new supply will prosper with about 500-600 units offered to attract buyers. The cumulative growth in supply at the end of the year is expected to reach 3.1% on a quarterly basis and 7.4% on a year-on-year basis with a total new supply of approximately 1,150 units. The eastern and southern regions are still waiting to be the market-leading areas with outstanding projects such as Verosa Park (Khang Dien), Vinhomes Grand Park (Vingroup), ZeitGeist Nha Be (GS E&C), Senturia An Phu (Tien Phuoc), Golf View Residence (Novaland). The upward trend is maintained with an increase of 2-4% quarterly and 10-20% annually.
According to JLL Vietnam, about 6,000 apartments will be officially launched in the fourth quarter to help the total sales of the year reach more than 31,000 units. Due to the government's increasingly tightened policy regarding the land approval process and construction permits, the future supply in 2020 will fluctuate sharply, ranging from 40,000 to 50,000 units.
Demand and price increase will largely follow a positive trend in affordable and mid-end projects. Meanwhile, high-end and affordable projects will continue to see a slump in demand, especially in investment needs. The main reason is that rental performance and the prospect of resale profit margin seem less attractive when the selling price reaches a new high level.
Sales of townhouses and villas are expected to reach more than 2,000 units in 2019, only half of the previous year. A large amount of future supply in 2020 will depend on two large-scale projects, GS Metro City in Nha Be District and Vinhomes Grand Park in District 9. Thanks to good buyer psychology, the majority of existing projects will continue to increase the price, especially in the affordable and intermediate housing segment.