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Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 9 – 2021)

Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 9 – 2021)

Thursday 04, 03 2021

Vietnam’s macro-economic overview

Vietnam’s economy is recovering as the third wave of the Covid-19 epidemic has gradually been controlled. Besides, FDI attraction continued to achieve positive results. As of February 20, 2021, the value of total newly FDI investment in Vietnam had reached 5.46 billion USD, equal to 84.4% of the same period in 2020. The realized capital of foreign direct investment projects is estimated at 2.5 billion USD, increasing by 2% over the same period in 2020.

Import Export

Regarding foreign trade, although the Covid-19 epidemic has been complicated both at home and abroad, import and export activities in the first 2 months of 2021 still recorded a sharp increase. In particular, export turnover is estimated at 50.05 billion USD, increasing by 27.1% over the same period last year; while import turnover is estimated at 47.5 billion USD, up 26.4%. The trade balance in the past 2 months recorded a surplus of USD 2.6 billion.

On the financial market, in the week before and after the Lunar New Year, the deposit interest rates at many commercial banks continued to be reduced at most terms with a popular decrease from 0.2% to 0.5% per year. Along with the adjustment of interest rates, the interbank interest rates also continued to fall sharply. 

The reason behind the fall in deposit interest rate is that banks are still having excess capital resources. In addition, credit growth has not seen a breakthrough, especially in the context of the recent outbreak of Covid-19 in Vietnam, which has also weakened the demand for credit.

Weekly financial - monetary situation and forecasts

Exchange rate

In the past week, the USD / VND exchange rate increased on both official and unofficial markets. At VCB, compared to the previous week, the exchange rate of USD / VND increased by 20 VND / USD, to 22,900 VND / USD (buying side) and 23,110 VND / USD (selling side). Compared to the beginning of 2021, the USD / VND has decreased by 80 VND / USD.  

On the unofficial market, the USD / VND exchange rate increased sharply by 230 VND / USD on the buying and increased by 260 VND / USD on the selling side, to 23,780 VND / USD and 23,830 VND / USD, respectively.

Exchange rate

At the State Bank of Vietnam, the USD / VND exchange rate was stable at 23,125 VND / USD, which is 699 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price. Compared to the previous week, the USD exchange rate on the selling side was stable at 23,776 VND / USD and was 48 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price.

Meanwhile, the central exchanged rate announced by the State Bank applicable to February 25, 2021 was 23,130 VND / USD, down 2 VND / USD compared to the rate announced the previous week. 

The USD / VND exchange rate has fluctuated in a narrow band. According to estimates, Vietnam's trade surplus in the first 2 months of 2021 reached 2.6 billion USD, which is better compared to the same period in 2020. 

Thus, in the context of favorable foreign currency supply and demand, and the State Bank's gradual intervention in the market, the USD / VND exchange rate is likely to move sideways in the short term and possibly decrease slightly throughout 2021.

Gold price

Gold Price

The world gold price increased due to the sharp fall in the US dollar. However, the price of gold is forecasted to decline due to a good economic outlook for the US economy. The Fed forecast that GDP of the US would grow by 6% this year after declining 2.5% in 2020.

At the end of the week, spot gold price was 1, 801 USD / oz. Gold futures price in April 2021 on Comex New York was1,790 USD / oz. On the Kitco trading exchange, spot gold prices were at 1,804 – 1,805 USD / oz.

World gold price was about 50.7 million VND / tael, which is 5.8 million VND lower than the domestic gold price.
The domestic gold price has decreased. In Hanoi, SJC gold price decreased by 300 VND / tael (purchased and sold) to 55.8 – 56.33 million VND / tael.

Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade
Compiled by VietnamCredit

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