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Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 8 – 2021)

Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 8 – 2021)

Saturday 27, 02 2021

Vietnam’s macro-economic overview

Although Vietnam has been going through the third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, at this point, the outbreak has basically been controlled in most provinces and cities thanks to the implementation of a series of effective measures to prevent the virus from spreading. However, there still exists the risk of epidemic spread in the community because there are cases with unknown sources of transmission, especially when people from other regions return to major cities to work after Tet Holiday. This is putting pressure on the economy and may hinder economic recovery in the coming time.

Vietnam’s macro-economic overview

Meanwhile, in the first month of 2021 alone, there were some relatively positive signals for the economy despite the re-outbreak of the pandemic. Inflation in January 2021 was relatively stable when the CPI increased by only 0.06% over the previous month and decreased by 0.97% over the same period in 2020. Industrial production continued to prosper. Index of industrial production was estimated to increase by 22.2% compared to January 2020, of which processing and manufacturing increased by 27.2%. The PMI calculated by IHS Markit reached 51.3 points in January 2021. Although this figure was lower than that in December 2020, it still exceeded 50 points, which shows that production activity is still on track. The number of newly established enterprises increased in both quantity and registered capital over the same period last year and increased in almost all economic sectors. Total newly and additionally registered capital of enterprises in January 2021 increased by 10.5% compared to January 2020.

Although the Covid-19 pandemic is still complicated, the import and export activities of Vietnam still recorded a high growth rate from the beginning of 2021 to 16/02/2021. Since the beginning of the year, the total value of goods imports and exports reached 74.51 billion USD, increasing sharply by 31% over the same period in 2020. Moreover, so far in 2021, Vietnam's balance of trade in goods witnessed a surplus of 2.63 billion USD.

Weekly financial - monetary situation and forecasts

Exchange rate

In the past week, the USD / VND exchange rate decreased on both official and unofficial markets. At VCB, compared to the previous week, the exchange rate of USD / VND decreased by 20 VND / USD, to 22,880 VND / USD (buying side) and 23,090 VND / USD (selling side). Compared to the beginning of 2021, the USD / VND has decreased by 100 VND / USD.  

On the unofficial market, the USD / VND exchange rate was stable on the buying yet decreased on the selling side, to 23,550 VND / USD and 23,570 VND / USD, respectively.

Exchange rate

At the State Bank of Vietnam, the USD / VND exchange rate was stable at 23,125 VND / USD, which is 701 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price. Compared to the previous week, the USD exchange rate on the selling side decreased by 12 VND / USD to 23,776 VND / USD and was 50 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price.

Meanwhile, the central exchanged rate announced by the State Bank applicable to February 18, 2021 was 23,132 VND / USD, down 3 VND / USD compared to the rate announced the previous week. 

Gold price

The world gold price has reached 2021’s bottom in the context that the US had announced a sharp increase in retail sales. This shows that supporting packages offered by the US government have had positive impact on the economy of this country.

Another cause for the fall in gold price was strong US government bond yields. The yield on a 10-year US Treasury note rose 9 basis points on February 16, 2021, to 1.3%, an all-time high since February 2020. The yield on the 30-year bond was also at its 1-year high.

Gold price

In the short term, the gold price trend is considered to be difficult to predict. However, in the medium and long term, gold price is likely to increase following the loose monetary policies and fiscal stimulus around the world. However, in 2021, inflation may not get out of control.
At the end of the week, spot gold price was 1, 787 USD / oz. Gold futures price in April 2021 on Comex New York was1,782 USD / oz. On the Kitco trading exchange, spot gold prices were at 1,778.20 - 1,779.20 USD / oz.

World gold price was about 50.5 million VND / tael, which is 6.2 million VND lower than the domestic gold price.

The domestic gold price fluctuated heterogeneously. In Hanoi, SJC gold price increased by 50,000 VND / tael (purchased) to 56.1 VND / tael.
In Vietnam, as the God of Wealth Day was coming around the corner, the price of gold was very high. On February 18, 2021, the domestic gold price listed by Doji Jewelry Group for Hanoi was 56.20 million VND / tael (purchased) and 56.67 million VND / tael (sold).

Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade
Compiled by VietnamCredit

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Banking & Finance

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