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Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 3 – 2021)

Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 3 – 2021)

Thursday 21, 01 2021

Vietnam’s macro-economic overview

According to the General Department of Vietnam Customs, the export and import turnover in December 2020 were both higher than expected, which means the total import and export turnover in 2020 reached a record of 545.36 billion USD, higher than the previous estimate of 543.9 billion and increasing by 5.35% compared to 2019.

Vietnam's Marcro-economic overview

In particular, the export turnover was 282.65 billion USD, increasing by 7% over the previous year, while the import turnover reached 262.7 billion USD, increasing by 3.7%. As a result, Vietnam enjoyed a record-high trade surplus of 19.95 billion USD, an increase of 83.5% over the previous year. Along with the expansion in scale, the structure of goods exported also improved in the past year by reducing the exports of raw materials and increasing the export of processed and industrial products. In addition, the market structure has also changed significantly in the context that the business community has been making better use of opportunities from FTAs.

The breakthroughs in export activities in 2020 are the result of the Government's and the people’s efforts. Vietnam ranked 22nd in the world in terms of export turnover and capacity, and 26th in terms of trade size. This promises a bright future for Vietnam’s import and export in the coming time.

Weekly financial - monetary situation and forecasts

Exchange rate

In the past week, the USD / VND exchange rate on the official market decreased, but experienced an increase on the unofficial market. At VCB, compared to the previous week, the exchange rate of USD / VND decreased by 20 VND / USD, to 22,950 VND / USD (buying side) and 23,160 VND / USD (selling side). Compared to the beginning of 2020, the USD / VND has decreased by 30 VND / USD.  

On the unofficial market, the USD / VND exchange rate increased by 40 VND / USD on the buying side and by 30 VND / USD on the selling side, to 23,360 VND / USD and 23,400 VND / USD, respectively.

Exchange rate

At the State Bank of Vietnam, the USD / VND exchange rate was stable at 23,125 VND / USD, which is 701 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price. Compared to the beginning of the year, the USD exchange rate on the selling side increased by 15 VND / USD to 23,776 VND / USD and was 50 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price.

Meanwhile, the central exchanged rate announced by the State Bank applicable to January 14, 2021 was 23,132 VND / USD, up 15 VND / USD compared to the rate announced the previous week. 

The State Bank's shift to buy foreign currencies by term partly aims to avoid inflationary pressure, and to refute the US accusation of "currency manipulation". However, the aforementioned move will cause commercial banks to bear greater foreign exchange risk, and there is a high possibility of appreciation for the VND.

Interest rates

Last week, the abundant liquidity of the VND in the interbank market made the average interbank interest rate drop. On January 12, 2021, the average interbank interest rate decreased for the overnight, 2-week and 1-month terms with the decrease of 0.03 percentage point, 0.02 percentage point and 0.01 percentage point, respectively, to 0.10% / year, 0.23% / year and 0.26% / year. In contrast, the average interbank interest rate for 1-week, 3-month, 6-month and 9-month terms increased.

Gold price

The world gold price dropped due to the increase in the value of the USD and positive signals from the US economy. However, the price of gold is forecasted to rebound due to the complicated political situation in the US, which can lead to social instability. That the newly elected US President Joe Biden announced the plan to support the economy has weakened the dollar, positively impacting the gold market.

Gold price

At the end of the week, spot gold price was 1,850 USD / oz. Gold futures price in February 2021 on Comex New York was 1,851 USD / oz. On the Kitco trading exchange, spot gold prices were at 1,847.50 - 1,848.50 USD / oz, down 74 USD / oz (equivalent to an increase of 2.3%) compared to the previous week.

World gold price was about 52.7 million VND / tael, which is 3.8 million VND lower than the domestic gold price.

Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade
Compiled by VietnamCredit

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Banking & Finance

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