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Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 17 – 2021)

Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 17 – 2021)

Monday 10, 05 2021

Vietnam’s macro-economic overview

Regarding foreign trade, after experiencing a sharp increase in March, Vietnam’s exports have slowed down with an estimated export turnover of 25 billion USD for April, which is a decrease of 15.7% compared to the previous month. The total export turnover in the first 4 months of 2021 reached 103.4 billion USD, up 27.7% over the same period last year. Import turnover in April 2021 was estimated at 25.9 billion USD, decreasing by 9% compared to the previous month and increasing by 37.6% compared to April 2020. The total import turnover in the first four months of the year was 101.5 billion USD, up 29.4% over the same period last year.

Import Export

With such figures, Vietnam’s trade balance saw a deficit of 900 million USD in April 2021, but for the first four months of 2021, there was still a surplus of nearly 1.9 billion USD. There was a positive change in the import structure of goods. In particular, the proportion of materials imported for production increased while the opposite was true for that of consumer goods. The strong increase in both export and import turnovers shows that production and consumption are recovering, and supply chains are gradually returning to normal condition. It is expected that exports will continue to accelerate in the coming months and be the driving force for economic growth in the last quarters of 2021.

Thanks to the recovery of production and business activities as well as the support in the State Bank's operating policies, credit growth rate has increased by 3.34% compared to the end of 2020. Previously, as of March 31, 2021, the credit of Vietnam’s economy reached over 9.46 trillion VND, which is 2.93 times higher than that at the end of 2020. Thus, in just 2 the first week of April, credit increased by 0.41 percentage points.

In the middle of April 2021, the US Treasury Department removed Vietnam from the list of countries manipulating currencies after the allegations in December 2020. Despite still being on the watch list, the risk of Vietnam being sanctioned by the US has been reduced, and the pressure on the exchange rate in the coming time will also decrease. In the context of the above favorable conditions, plus the abundant supply of foreign currencies, it is expected that the USD / VND exchange rate will maintain a positive state this year.

Weekly financial - monetary situation and forecasts

Exchange rate

In the past week, the USD / VND exchange rate increased on the official but experienced fluctuation on the unofficial markets. At VCB, compared to the previous week, the exchange rate of USD / VND increased by 5 VND / USD to 22,955 VND / USD (purchased) and 23,165 VND / USD (sold), respectively. Compared to the beginning of 2021, the USD / VND has decreased by 25 VND / USD.  

On the unofficial market, the USD / VND exchange remained stable at 23,650 VND / USD and 23,700VND / USD, respectively.

Exchange rate

At the State Bank of Vietnam, the USD / VND exchange rate was stable at 23,125 VND / USD, which is 753 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price. Compared to the previous week, the USD exchange rate on the selling side decreased by 18 VND / USD to 23,828 VND / USD and was 50 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price.

Meanwhile, the central exchanged rate announced by the State Bank applicable to April 22, 2021 was 23,183 VND / USD, down 17 VND / USD compared to the rate announced the previous week.

Gold price

The world gold price increased due to the increasing demand which is partly resulted from central banks of countries and the decrease in US bond yields. Also, gold prices rose due to the sharp decline in stock markets in the context that the number of Covid-19 cases continued to increase, causing worry for investors around the world

At the end of the week, spot gold price was 1,794 USD / oz. Gold futures price in June 2021 on Comex New York was1,794 USD / oz. On the Kitco trading exchange, gold prices were 1,796.5 – 1,797.5 USD / oz.

Gold price

World gold price was about 50.8 million VND / tael, which is 5 million VND lower than the domestic gold price.

The domestic gold prices also experienced an increase. In Hanoi, SJC gold price inecreased by 580 thousand VND / tael on the selling side and by 550 thousand VND / tael on the buying sides, to 55.43 – 55.82million VND / tael.

Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade

Compiled by VietnamCredit

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