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Vietnam’s monthly economic overview (October, 2022)

Vietnam’s monthly economic overview (October, 2022)

Saturday 29, 10 2022
The index of industrial production (IIP) in October is estimated to increase by 3% from the previous month and by 6.3% over the same period last year. In the first 10 months of 2022, IIP is estimated to increase by 9% over the same period last year.

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1. Agriculture, forestry and fishery production

a) Agriculture

As of mid-October, 893.1 thousand hectares of winter rice had been harvested, accounting for 57.4% of the cultivated area and equaling 87.9% of the same period last year. The planted area of summer-autumn rice crop is estimated at 1,915.6 thousand hectares, down 38.6 thousand hectares compared to the summer-autumn crop in 2021; productivity reached 56.4 quintals/ha, down 0.6 quintals/ha; output reached 10.8 million tons, down 340 thousand tons.

The progress of planting winter crops in the Northern provinces is lower than in the same period last year due to unfavorable weather  conditions when many areas are flooded. Along with that, the economic efficiency from corn, sweet potato and peanut crops is not high, so farmers have reduced production.

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It is estimated that the total number of pigs would increase by 13.6% by the end of October 2022 compared to the same period in 2021. The total number of cows increased by 3.3%; the total number of buffaloes decreased by 1%; total poultry increased by 5.2%.

b) Forestry

Generally, in the first 10 months of 2022, the newly planted forest area is estimated at 227 thousand ha, up 5.4% over the same period last year. The number of scattered forest trees reached 78.3 million, up 5%. Firewood production reached 15.4 million steres, up 0.3%. Timber production reached 15.6 million m3, up 6.2%.

The area of damaged forest was 989.4 ha, down 59.2%, of which burnt forest area was 26.5 ha, down 98.2%; the area of destroyed forest was 963 ha, down 0.2%.

VietnamCredit Forestry

c) Fishery

Aquatic production in October was estimated at 815.9 thousand tons, up 2.5% over the same period last year. Specifically, aquaculture production was estimated at 517.5 thousand tons, up 4.5%; fishing output was estimated at 298.4 thousand tons, down 0.6%. Generally, in the first 10 months of 2022, fishery output was estimated at 7,450.7 thousand tons, up 3.1% over the same period last year.

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2. Industrial production

The index of industrial production (IIP) in October is estimated to increase by 3% from the previous month and by 6.3% over the same period last year. In the first 10 months of 2022, IIP is estimated to increase by 9% over the same period last year. In particular, the processing and manufacturing sector grew by 9.6%, contributing 7.4 percentage points to the overall growth; electricity production and distribution increased by 7.8%, contributing 0.7 percentage points; water supply industry, waste and wastewater treatment and management activities increased by 6.6%, contributing 0.1 percentage points; the mining industry increased by 5%, contributing 0.8 percentage points.

As of October 1, 2022, the number of employees working in industrial enterprises increased by 0.8% over the same period last month and by 10.2% over the same period last year.

Vietnamcredit Industrial production

3.Business registration

In October, there were more than 13,000 newly established enterprises, up 13.6% over the previous month and 58.3% over the same period last year. Besides, there were 3.9 thousand enterprises returning to operation, down 23.7% over the previous month and down 9.3% over the same period in 2021. There were 4,058 enterprises registered to suspend business for a definite time, up 38.3% and up 16.2%. About 4,200 enterprises stopped operating and waited for dissolution procedures, up 0.3% and 37.8%; 1,602 enterprises completed dissolution procedures, up 5.7% and 98.8%.

Generally in the first 10 months of 2022, there were 178.5 thousand enterprises registered for new establishment and returning to operation, up 38.3% over the same period last year. On average, there were 17.8 thousand enterprises newly established and re-operated per month. The number of enterprises withdrawing from the market was 122.1 thousand enterprises, up 25.8%. This means 12.2 thousand enterprises withdrew from the market every month.

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4. Investment

Realized investment capital from the State budget in October is estimated at VND 53.6 trillion, up 24.2% over the same period last year. In the first 10 months of 2022, investment capital realized from the State budget is estimated at VND 387.7 trillion, equaling 67.1% of the year plan and increasing 20.1% over the same period last year.

As of October 20, 2022, total foreign investment capital registered in Vietnam including newly registered capital, adjusted registered capital and capital contribution and share purchase by foreign investors reached nearly USD 22.46 billion, down 5.4% over the same period last year.

Realized foreign direct investment capital in Vietnam in the 10 months of 2022 is estimated at USD 17.45 billion, up 15.2% over the same period last year. This is the highest amount of foreign direct investment capital realized in 10 months in the past 5 years.

Regarding Vietnam's investment abroad in the 10 months of 2022, there were 90 projects newly granted investment certificates with the total capital of the Vietnamese side reaching USD 390.1 million, 1.8 times higher than the same period last year.

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5. Trade

a) Retail sales of consumer goods and services

Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in October was estimated at VND 486.4 trillion, up 1.5% over the previous month and 17.1% over the same period last year. In the 10 months of 2022, the total retail sales of consumer goods and services was estimated at VND 4,643.6 trillion, up 20.2% over the same period last year.

Vietnamcredit Retail sales of consumer goods and services

b) Exports & imports of goods

– Exports of goods

The export turnover of goods in October 2022 was estimated at USD 30.27 billion, up 1.5% over the previous month and 4.5% over the same period last year. In the first ten months of 2022, export turnover of goods was estimated at USD 312.2 billion, up 17.3% over the same period last year.

Regarding the structure of export goods in the first 10 months of 2022, processed industrial products accounted for 89.1%.

Vietnamcredit Exports & imports of goods

– Imports of goods

The import turnover of goods in October 2022 was estimated at USD 28 billion, down 1.4% over the previous month and up 7.1% over the same period last year. In the first 10 months of 2022, the import turnover of goods was estimated at USD 303.42 billion, up 12.2% over the same period last year.

As for the structure of imported goods in the first 10 months of 2022, capital goods accounted for 93.7%.

– Export and import market of goods: in the first 10 months of 2022, the United States was Vietnam's largest export market with an estimated turnover of USD 93.4 billion, while China was Vietnam's largest import market with an estimated turnover of USD 100.7 billion.

Trade balance: Vietnam is believed to have a trade surplus of USD 2.27 billion in October. In the first 10 months of 2022, the trade balance of goods is estimated to have a trade surplus of USD 9.4 billion.

6. Consumer Price Index, Gold Price Index and US Dollar

The consumer price index (CPI) in October 2022 increased by 0.15% compared to the previous month, by 4.16% compared to December 2021 and by 4.3% over the same period last year. On average, in the first 10 months of 2022, CPI increased by 2.89% over the same period last year. Core inflation increased by 2.14%, lower than the average CPI, which reflects consumer price fluctuations (mainly due to increasing food prices and petrol prices).

Gold price index in October 2022 increased by 0.5% compared to the previous month; an increase of 4.8% over the same period in 2021.

US dollar price index in October 2022 increased by 1.84% over the previous month and by 5.42% over the same period in 2021.

Source: GSO

Compiled by VietnamCredit

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