This figure increased compared to last year, making Vietnam's GDP surpass Singapore (USD 337 billion) and Malaysia (USD 336 billion). The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also forecasted that Vietnam's GDP per capita would increase from USD 3,416 last year to nearly USD 3,500 this year.
The latest IMF data of GDP is quite different from the periodical data of the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, but the IMF’s revision is similar.
As of the end of the third quarter this year, Vietnam's GDP at current prices was estimated at nearly VND 4.17 million billion, equivalent to approximately USD 181 billion. Before that, at the end of 2019, the GDP was over VND 6 million billion, equivalent to more than 260 billion USD. However, based on IMF’s revision of the economy in the 2010 - 2017 period, the GDP by the end of 2019 surpassed the threshold of USD 300 billion.
On October 14th, Mr. Pham The Anh, the Chief Economist of the Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VERP) said that IMF using the post-reassessment data to calculate Vietnam's GDP was normal. Previously, the IMF also assisted the General Statistics Office of Vietnam in re-assessing the economy.
The position and image of Vietnam can be enhanced when GDP increases and some indexes become positive. However, according to Mr. The Anh, this cannot be seen as a breakthrough. The revision is just an adjustment of the past. The nature of the economy remains the same.
Also, according to this expert, GDP and indexes calculated based on GDP are just one of many criteria to evaluate the attractiveness of a country’s investment environment. "Investors need various criteria to evaluate the health and risk level of an economy, rather than merely considering the GDP scale," said the Chief Economist of VEPR.
According to the IMF, Vietnam is one of a few countries which was forecasted to have a positive growth at 1.6%. On October 13th, IMF forecasted that global GDP dropped 4.4% this year, less pessimistic than its June report. However, next year's growth outlook was decreased from 5, 4% to 5.2%.
Other economies in ASEAN were also forecasted to have negative growth, including Indonesia (-1.5%), Thailand (-7.1%), Malaysia (-6%), Philippines (-8.3). to Singapore (-6%). Vietnam was believed to maintain growth this year by several economic organizations. This economic growth was forecasted to increase by 1.8% and 3.1% by ADB and ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office - AMRO ASIA, respectively.
Gita Gopinath, the Chief Economist of IMF warned, “The economic recovery will be prolonged, uneven, and unstable.” This morning, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry of Singapore recently announced that this country’s GDP of the third quarter this year decreased by 7% on a year-over-year basis, but increased by 7.9% compared to the previous quarter. The economy fell into recession since the previous quarter with a record 12.6% decrease over the same period.
At the end of July, Vietnam’s economy was forecasted by the World Bank to have a 2.8% growth, the fifth-highest in the world. However, this report did not estimate the impact of the recent outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in Da Nang. The pandemic has made a considerably severe impact on the world economy this year, putting a series of countries in recession, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, South Korea, Japan, and Australia.
Translated by VietnamCredit