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Vietnam’s 2021 socio-economic overview

Vietnam’s 2021 socio-economic overview

Wednesday 05, 01 2022
The General Statistics Office has recently released the report on Vietnam’s socio-economic situation in the fourth quarter and 2021. Accordingly, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in 2021 is estimated to increase by 2.58%.

Below is detailed information about Vietnam's socio-economic situation in 2021 that VietnamCredit has compiled from the General Statistics Office.

Covid 19

A glance at Vietnam social conditions

The average population of Vietnam in 2021 is estimated at 98.51 million people, an increase of 0.95% compared to 2020. Of the total population, 36.57 million are urban citizens, accounting for 37.1%, rural population is 61.94 million people, accounting for 62.9%; 49.1 million people are male, accounting for 49.8% while the number of women is 49.41 million people, accounting for 50.2%. The sex ratio of the population in 2021 is 99.4 males/100 females.

Population

The country's labor force aged 15 and over in the fourth quarter of 2021 was estimated at 50.7 million people, an increase of 1.7 million people compared to the previous quarter and a decrease of 1.4 million people compared to the same period last year. In general, in 2021, the labor force aged 15 and over is 50.5 million people, down 0.8 million people compared to the previous year.

Employed workers aged 15 and over in the fourth quarter of 2021 are estimated at 49.1 million people. In general, this year, the number working laborers aged 15 and older is 49 million people, including 14.2 million people working in agriculture, forestry and fishery, up 0.3% compared to the previous year; 16.2 million people working in the industry and construction sector was, down 1.5%; 18.6 million people working in service sector, down 4.1%.

In 2021 in general, the unemployment rate of working age workers is 3.22%, of which the unemployment rate in urban areas is 4.42% while rural area is 2.48%. The unemployment rate among the youth (from 15-24 years old) in 2021 is estimated at 8.48%, of which the urban area is 11.91% and rural area is 6.76%. The underemployment rate of working-age workers is estimated at 3.10%, in which the underemployment rate in urban areas is 3.33% while the underemployment rate in rural areas is 2.96%.

Economic overview

1. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth ratei

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2021 was estimated to increase by 5.22% over the same period last year. In particular, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector grew by 3.16%; industry and construction sector saw a growth of 5.61%; service sector grew by by 5.42%. Regarding the use GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021, final consumption increased by 3.86% over the same period last year; accumulated assets increased by 3.37%; exports of goods and services increased by 14.28%; imports of goods and services increased by 11.36%.

It is estimated that GDP in 2021 just increases by 2.58% over the previous year due to the fact that Covid-19 epidemic has seriously affected all sectors of the economy, especially in the third quarter of 2021. In the general growth rate of the economy, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 2.9%, contributing 13.97% to the growth; the industry and construction sector increased by 4.05%, contributing 63.80%; the service sector increased by 1.22%, contributing 22.23%.

GDP

Regarding the economic structure in 2021, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector accounts for 12.36%; industry and construction sector accounts for 37.86%; service sector accounts for 40.95%; product tax minus product subsidies accounts for 8.83%.

As for GDP use in 2021, final consumption increased by 2.09% compared to 2020; accumulated assets increased by 3.96%; exports of goods and services increased by 14.01%; imports of goods and services increased by 16.16%.

Labor productivity of the economy at current prices in 2021 is estimated at 171.3 million VND/worker (equivalent to 7,398 USD/worker, an increase of 538 USD compared to 2020). At constant prices, labor productivity in 2021 increases by 4.71% due to improved qualifications of workers.

AgricultureForestryFishery

2. Industrial production

Industrial production in the fourth quarter of 2021 prospered right after the Government's Resolution No. 128/NQ-CP dated October 11, 2021 on safe adaptation, flexibility, effective control of the Covid-19 epidemic was implemented.

The added value of the whole industry in 2021 is estimated to increase by 4.82% over the previous year. In particular, the processing and manufacturing industry increased by 6.37%, contributing 1.61 percentage points to the overall growth of the economy; electricity production and distribution increased by 5.24%, contributing 0.19 percentage points; water supply, waste and wastewater management and treatment activities increased by 4%, contributing 0.02 percentage points; the mining sector decreased by 6.21% (due to a decrease of 5.7% in crude oil production and a decrease of 19.4% in natural gas production), reducing 0.23 percentage points in the overall growth.

Consumption index of the processing and manufacturing industry in December 2021 increased by 5.9% over the previous month and by 7.9% over the same period last year. In general, in 2021, the consumption index of the processing and manufacturing industry increases by 4.5% compared to 2020.

As of December 31, 2021, the inventory index of this industry was estimated to increase by 0.1% over the same period last month and by 21.9% over the same period last year. The average inventory rate of the entire processing and manufacturing industry in 2021 is 79.1%.

Industrial production

3. Business activities

In 2021, the fourth outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic along with strict blockades and prolonged social - distancing measures (especially in the third quarter of 2021) had a negative impact on the number of businesses

Business registration

In 2021, there were 116.8 thousand newly registered enterprises with a total registered capital of 1,611.1 trillion VND and a total number of registered employees of nearly 854 thousand employees, down 13.4% in terms of number of enterprises, a decrease of 27.9% in registered capital and a decrease of 18.1% in the number of employees over the previous year.

The average registered capital of a newly established enterprise in 2021 reached 13.8 billion VND, down 16.8% from the previous year. In addition, there were 43.1 thousand enterprises returning to operation. On average, there were 13.3 thousand newly established enterprises a month.

In 2021, the number of enterprises suspending business for a definite term is nearly 55 thousand, an increase of 18% compared to the previous year; 48.1 thousand enterprises stopped operating and waited for dissolution procedures, an increase of 27.8%; 16.7 thousand enterprises completed dissolution procedures, down 4.1%. On average, nearly 10,000 businesses withdraw from the market every month.

Business activities

Business trend

The results of the survey on business trends of enterprises in the processing and manufacturing industry in the fourth quarter of 2021 shows that 44% of enterprises believed their production and business situation was better than in the third quarter of 2021; 31.1% said that the production and business situation was stable and 24.9% said that they were having difficulties.

45.6% of enterprises expected that the trend would be more positive in the first quarter of 2022; 36.1% of enterprises thought that the production and business situation would be stable and 18.3% forecast more difficulties.

4. Services

Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in the fourth quarter of 2021 was estimated at VND1,312.6 trillion, up 28.1% over the previous quarter and down 2.8% over the same period last year. In 2021, the total retail sales of consumer goods and services is estimated at 4,789.5 trillion VND, down 3.8% compared to the previous year, if excluding the price factor, it would decrease by 6.2%.

Telecommunications revenue in the fourth quarter of 2021 was estimated at 82.9 trillion VND, down 2.3% over the same period last year (if excluding the price factor, it decreased by 2.4%). In 2021, revenue from telecommunications reached 314.8 trillion VND, down 0.1% compared to the previous year.

The number of international visitors to Vietnam in December was estimated at 17.2 thousand, up 14.2% over the previous month and 5.4% over the same period last year. In the fourth quarter of 2021, there were 42.7 thousand arrivals, an increase of 62.7% compared to the third quarter of 2021 and a decrease of 12.4% over the same period of 2020. In general, in 2021, the number of international visitors to Vietnam is estimated at 157.3 thousand, down 95.9% over the previous year.

Services

5. Banking, insurance, and securities

In 2021, in the context of the economy facing many difficulties due to the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic, the State Bank of Vietnam adjusted interest rates appropriately, creating conditions for credit institutions to continue reducing interest rates and supporting the recovery of the economy.

As of December 24, 2021, the total means of payment increased by 8.93% compared to the end of 2020; capital mobilization from credit institutions increased by 8.44%; and credit growth of the economy reached 12.97%.

Premium revenue of the insurance market in the fourth quarter of 2021 was estimated to increase by 14.8% over the same period last year. It is estimated that in 2021, the premium revenue of this market increases by 15.6% compared to the previous year, of which the premium revenue from the life insurance increases by 21.7% while the non-life insurance sector increases by 1.7%.

As of December 27, 2021, the average trading value on the stock market reached 26,526 billion VND /session, an increase of 257.5 percent compared to the previous year's average. The average trading volume of futures products on the VN30 index on the derivatives market reached 189,923 contracts/session, up 21%.

6. Investment

Realized social investment capital at current prices in 2021 reached 2,891.9 trillion VND, an increase of 3.2% over the previous year. In particular, the state capital reached 713.6 trillion VND, accounting for 24.7% of the total capital and decreasing by 2.9% compared to the previous year; capital from the non-state sector reached 1,720.2 trillion VND, equaling 59.5% and increasing by 7.2%; FDI investment reached 458.1 trillion VND, equaling 15.8% and down 1.1%.

As of December 20, 2021, the total foreign investment capital registered in Vietnam including newly registered capital, capital contribution and share purchase by foreign investors reached 31.15 billion USD, up 9.2% compared to 2020.

Realized foreign direct investment capital in Vietnam in 2021 was estimated at 19.74 billion USD, down 1.2% over the previous year.

Investment

7. Import-export of goods & services

Import-export of goods

Export turnover of goods in the fourth quarter of 2021 was estimated at 95.6 billion USD, up 19.4% over the same period last year and 16.4% compared to the third quarter of 2021. In general, in 2021, export turnover of goods is estimated at 336.25 billion USD, up 19% over the previous year.

Regarding the structure of export in 2021, processed industrial products accounted for 89.2%, up 0.6% over the previous year; agricultural and forestry products accounted for 7.1%, down 0.2%; aquatic products accounted for 2.6%, down 0.4%; fuel and mineral products accounted for 1.1%, equal to the previous year.

The import turnover of goods in 2021 is estimated at 332.25 billion USD, up 26.5% over the previous year. As for the structure of imported goods in 2021, raw materials accounted for 93.5%, up 0.2 percentage points over the previous year while consumer products accounted for 6.5%, down 0.2 percentage points.

In 2021, the United States is the largest export market of Vietnam with an estimated turnover of 95.6 billion USD. China is Vietnam's largest import market with an estimated turnover of 109.9 billion USD. In 2021, the trade balance of goods is estimated to have a trade surplus of 4 billion USD.

Import & Export

Import-export of services

In the fourth quarter of 2021, service export turnover was estimated at 985 million USD, down 3.3% over the same period in 2020 and up 9.2% over the previous quarter; service import turnover was estimated at 5.1 billion USD, up 12.4% and up 5.5%.

In 2021, service export turnover is estimated at 3.67 billion USD, down 51.7% compared to 2020; service import turnover is estimated at 19.41 billion USD, up 8.5%. Service trade deficit in 2021 is 15.73 billion USD (of which transportation and insurance service fees for imported goods are 8.24 billion USD).

8. CPI and inflation

Petrol and gas prices in December decreased in accordance with the world fuel prices. The Covid-19 epidemic has been spreading across the country. Tuition fees for the first semester of the academic year 2021-2022 continue to be exempted and reduced in some regions. These are the main reasons why the consumer price index (CPI) in December 2021 decreased 0.18% compared to the previous month and increased by 1.81% compared to December 2020. On average, in 2021, CPI increases by 1.84% over the previous year, the lowest increase since 2016.

Core inflation in December 2021 increased by 0.16% over the previous month, by 0.67% over the same period last year. Average core inflation in 2021 increases by 0.81% compared to the average in 2020.

Vietnamcredit

Source: General Statistics Office

Compiled by VietnamCredit

 

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Vietnam Economy

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