In 2022, there were many fluctuations in the domestic and international rubber market. The purchase price of raw rubber latex in the Southeast provinces ranged from VND 235 to 280/TSC, depending on the quality and brand of each company. Vietnam's rubber exports reached 2.14 million tons, worth $3.31 billion, up 9.7% in volume and 1.1% in value compared to 2021. China was still the main consuming market of Vietnamese rubber, accounting for more than 74% of total exports.
In 2023, the price of rubber latex will depend on many factors such as rubber output, production costs, exchange rates, tariff policies and trade protection measures of importing countries. According to the plan of the Vietnam Rubber Group (VRG), rubber production in 2023 will reach about 425 thousand tons, and 500 thousand tons will be consumed. VRG will also continue to promote the improvement of rubber farms, improve the quality of rubber latex, develop rubber products with high added value and expand the consumption market.
According to experts, in order to get a reasonable and sustainable rubber latex price, businesses in the industry need to improve their competitiveness, innovate technology, find new sources of supply and diversify types of rubber products. At the same time, there should be close coordination between state management agencies, industry associations and businesses in monitoring market developments, updating information and data on online rubber prices, making accurate and timely judgments and forecasts to support business decision making of enterprises.
Rubber latex price is one of the important factors affecting production and business activities of Vietnam's rubber industry. The price of latex fluctuates according to many factors, including world supply and demand, the situation of the Covid-10 epidemic, macroeconomic policies of major countries, especially China and the United States, and other geopolitical risk.
According to experts, in 2023, the price of rubber latex saw an increase in the first half of the year due to the strong increase in Chinese demand before the Lunar New Year holiday, while there was a supply shortage because the main producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam entered the annual deciduous season. In addition, the Fed's slower rate of interest rate increase can also support speculative buying activities in the rubber market.
However, the price of rubber latex may decrease in the second half of the year as the world's natural rubber output is still significantly higher than consumption. In addition, risk factors such as the outbreak of Covid-19, conflict in Ukraine or other geopolitical issues can also put pressure on rubber prices.
In 2023, the rubber latex market may witness great fluctuations due to many factors such as consumption demand, exploitation output, prices, policies and epidemic situation. China is expected to import about 5 million tons of rubber latex in 2023, an increase of 10% compared to 2022. In addition, other markets such as the US, EU, Japan and South Korea also have high demand for rubber latex to serve the production of tires, medical gloves and other rubber products.
In terms of exploitation output, in 2023, Vietnam is expected to produce about 425 thousand tons of rubber latex, a slight decrease compared to 2022 due to the influence of El Nino phenomenon and labor shortage. However, this output is still enough to meet the needs of domestic consumption and export.
Regarding the policy, the Vietnamese government will continue to implement supportive measures for the rubber industry such as reducing export tax, exempting and reducing import tax on raw materials and equipment for rubber production and processing, loan and insurance support for businesses.
In terms of prices, in 2023, rubber latex prices tend to increase in the first half of the year due to high demand and limited supply from main producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia.
Compiled by VietnamCredit