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Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 49 – 2020)

Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 49 – 2020)

Thursday 10, 12 2020

Vietnam’s macro-economic overview

The fact that there has been a few more people catching Covid-19 virus in Vietnam is a great pressure on the authorities as everyone is trying to reach the target and keep the adjusted growth target of 2% - 2.5% for the whole year. Meanwhile, the well-controlled Covid-19 epidemic in the previous months combined with the positive impact from the commitments in the EVFTA Agreement has created an important driving force, contributing to economic recovery.

The index of industrial production (IIP) was estimated to increase by 0.5% in November 2020 over the previous month and by 9.2% over the same period last year. In particular, processing and manufacturing sector experienced an increase of 11.9%. For the first eleven months of 2020, the IIP is estimated to increase by 3.1% over the same period last year, lower than the 9.3% increase for the same period in 2019.
The index of industrial production
November’s trade activities maintained a good growth with a total import-export turnover estimated at 48.5 billion USD, an increase of nearly 10% over the same period in 2019.Domestic consumption demand has also been significantly improved, reflected in the relatively high growth in retail sales of consumer goods and services. Accordingly, the total retail sales of consumer goods and services in November 2020 increased by 2.3% compared to October 2020 and by 8.5% over the same period last year. Meanwhile, the domestic macroeconomy continued to be stable, and inflation has been well controlled. The consumer price index in November 2020 decreased by 0.01% compared to the previous month in the context that gasoline, electricity and water prices were reduced. 

Weekly financial - monetary situation and forecasts

Exchange rate

In the past week, the USD / VND exchange rate witnessed a decrease both in the official market and the unofficial market. At VCB, compared to the previous week, the exchange rate of USD / VND decreased by 20 VND / USD (equivalent to a 0.09% decrease), to 23,020 VND / USD (buying side) and 23,230 VND / USD (selling side). Compared to the beginning of 2020, the USD / VND stays unchanged. 
In the unofficial market, the USD / VND exchange rate decreased by 30 VND / USD on the buying and selling side, to 23,170 VND / USD and 23,200 VND / USD, respectively.

At the State Bank of Vietnam, the USD / VND exchange rate was stable at 23,125 VND / USD, which is 716 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price. Compared to the previous week, the USD exchange rate on the selling side decreased by 18 VND / USD to 23,791 VND / USD and was 50 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price.
Exchange rate
Meanwhile, the central exchanged rate announced by the State Bank applicable to December 3, 2020 was 23,147 VND / USD, down 17 VND / USD (equivalent to a decrease of 0.07%) compared to the rate announced the previous week. Since early 2020, the central exchanged rate has been adjusted to decrease by 26 VND / USD (equivalent to a decrease of 0.11%). 

Gold price

The world gold price rebounded despite the positive news about Covid-19 vaccine. Gold prices fell sharply last week, causing many people to pour money to buy gold. Besides, the gold price was supported by a sharp fall in USD.
Gold price
At the end of the week, spot gold price was 1,827 USD / oz, which was an increase of 21.5 USD / oz (equivalent to an increase of 1.2%) compared to last week. Gold futures price in February 2021 on Comex New York was 1,832 USD / oz, up 9 USD / oz. On the Kitco trading exchange, spot gold prices were at 1,830.80 - 1,831.80 USD / oz, up 22.8 USD / oz (equivalent to an increase of 1.26%) compared to the previous week.

World gold price was about 51.5 million VND / tael, which is 3.6 million VND lower than the domestic gold price.
Domestically, the price of gold has decreased. Specifically, in Hanoi, SJC gold bought-in and sold-out prices were54.55 and 55.2 million dong / tael, respectively.

Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade
Compiled by VietnamCredit

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Banking & Finance

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