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Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 47 – 2020)

Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 47 – 2020)

Thursday 26, 11 2020

Vietnam’s macro-economic overview

On November 15, 2020, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to which Vietnam is a member was officially signed, bringing great opportunities for Vietnam. RCEP presents more than 32% of global GDP with a population of more than 2.2 billion people, and will become the largest free trade zone in the world. RCEP has the participation of 15 countries, including 10 members of ASEAN as well as China, Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand. It takes two years from the signing date to elaborate the terms before the agreement enters into force.
 Vietnam’s macro-economic overview
In the midst of the Covid-19 epidemic that has disrupted the supply chain, affecting the global economy and the increasing protection of trade, the signing of the RCEP marks an important milestone in the Vietnam's economic integration process and brings benefits in both short and long term. It also makes an important contribution to enhancing Vietnam's role and position in the region and in the world. Together with the CPTPP and EVFTA, the signing of the RCEP will open more opportunities for Vietnamese enterprises to participate in new value chains in the region, to attract more foreign investment and to boost exports, especially in the context that most of the members are not too fastidious (except for Australia, Japan, New Zealand) and have high demand for Vietnamese products such as tropical agricultural products and processed food.
 
In the domestic market, many commercial banks have continuously reduced deposit interest rates in the context of low inflation and abundant liquidity of the system due to a slow credit growth. Many banks have sharply reduced interest rates on long term deposits over 12 months to less than 6% / year, while interest rates for terms of less than 6 months in some banks were around 3% / year, much lower than the ceiling set by the State Bank. With this movement, it is expected that the wave of lowering lending interest rates will take place more strongly in the near future.

Weekly financial - monetary situation and forecasts

Exchange rate

In the past week, the USD / VND exchange rate remained stable in the official market but decreased in the unofficial market. At VCB, compared to the previous week, the exchange rate of USD / VND stayed unchanged, at 23,060 VND / USD (buying side) and 23,270 VND / USD (selling side). Compared to the beginning of 2020, the USD / VND exchange rate on the selling side has increased by 40 VND / USD (equivalent to an increase of 0.17%). 

In the unofficial market, the USD / VND exchange rate decreased by 20 VND / USD on the buying and selling side, to 23,180 VND / USD and 23,210 VND / USD, respectively.
Exchange rate
At the State Bank of Vietnam, the USD / VND exchange rate was stable at 23,175 VND / USD, which is 684 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price. Compared to the previous week, the USD exchange rate on the selling side decreased by 24 VND / USD to 23,809 VND / USD and was 50 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price.

Meanwhile, the central exchanged rate announced by the State Bank applicable to November 19, 2020 was 23,164VND / USD, down 23 VND / USD (equivalent to a decrease of 0.10%) compared to the rate announced the previous week. Since early 2020, the central exchanged rate has been adjusted to decrease by 9VND / USD (equivalent to a decrease of 0.04%). 

The State Bank has bought 1 billion VND term on the open market but bought a large amount of foreign currency, equivalent to more than 30,000 billion VND. This action is the result of the plentiful supply. As of mid-November, Vientam had enjoyed a trade surplus of 19.41 billion USD.

Gold price

The world gold price increased despite positive new house construction data in the US. However, the growth rate of gold price is low. 
At the end of the week, spot gold price was 1,870 USD / oz, which was an increase of 4 USD / oz (equivalent to an increase of 0.21%) compared to last week. Gold futures price in December 2020 on Comex New York was 1,871 USD / oz, up 9 USD / oz (equivalent to an increase of 0.48%) compared to the previous week. On the Kitco trading exchange, spot gold prices were at 1,872.50 - 1,873.50 USD / oz, up 8 USD / oz (equivalent to an increase of 0.42%) compared to the previous week.
Gold price
World gold price was about 53.2 million VND / tael, which is 3.2 million VND lower than the domestic gold price.
Domestically, the price of gold has decreased. Specifically, in Hanoi, SJC gold bought-in and sold-out prices were55.70 and 56.17 million dong / tael, respectively.

Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade

Categories
Banking & Finance

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