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Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 26 – 2021)

Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 26 – 2021)

Wednesday 14, 07 2021

Vietnam’s macro-economic overview

Vietnam’s economy is on the road to recovery in the context that the 4th outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic has gradually been controlled and vaccination is accelerated nationwide. According to the State Bank of Vietnam, as of June 15, 2021, the credit growth of the Vietnamese economy had reached 5.1%, which is 2 times higher than that at the end of 2020. Total means of payment also increased by 3.96% compared to the end of 2020 and increased by 14.27% over the same period in 2020. The deposit and lending interest rates decreased by about 0.3%/year compared to December 2020.

State bank

Trade activities in June 2021 achieved positive results with import and export turnover accelerating rapidly compared to the same period last year. In particular, exports were estimated to increase by 12.9% to 25.5 billion USD and import by 28.6% to 26.5 billion USD. With this result, in the first half of 2021, the total export turnover was estimated at 156.6 billion USD, up 27.6% and the total import turnover was estimated at 158.1 billion USD, up 35.2% compared to the same period last year. In the coming time, it is expected that import and export activities will continue to prosper when the Free Trade Agreements are gradually being implemented more comprehensively and effectively. Besides, the price of export goods is also trending up, which will also be an important driving force to increase export value.

Import & Export

However, the growth rate of imports was faster than that of exports. This has caused Vietnam to suffer from a trade deficit of 1 billion USD in June 2021, and of 1.47 billion USD in the first 6 months of 2021 (in the first 6 months of 2021, there was a trade surplus of 5.86 billion USD). However, this is considered to be in line with the general situation in which most of Vietnam's imported products are raw materials and fuels while production activities have accelerated again to meet increasing domestic consumption and exports.

Weekly financial - monetary situation and forecasts

Exchange rate

In the past week, the USD / VND exchange rate increased sharply on both official and unofficial markets. At VCB, compared to the previous week, the exchange rate of USD / VND increased by 60 VND / USD, to 22,880 VND / USD (purchased) and 23,110 VND / USD (sold). Compared to the beginning of 2021, the USD / VND has decreased by 80 VND / USD. 

On the unofficial market, the USD / VND exchange increased dramatically by 160 VND / USD on both buying and selling sides to 23,180 VND / USD and 23,210 VND / USD, respectively.

Exchange rate

At the State Bank of Vietnam, the USD / VND exchange rate was stable at 22,975 VND / USD, which is 912 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price. Compared to the previous week, the USD exchange rate on the selling side increased sharply by 80 VND / USD to 23,837 VND / USD and was 50 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price.

Meanwhile, the central exchanged rate announced by the State Bank applicable to June 24, 2021 was 23,191 VND / USD, up 77 VND / USD compared to the rate announced the previous week.

Gold price

The world gold price fell due to the rising USD and the positive prospect of the US economy's recovery. The near-term outlook for gold remains uncertain. Investors are still watching the Fed's plans to reduce asset purchases and raise interest rates. If the Fed allows inflation to slightly exceed its target, gold will continue to appreciate. On the other hand, if the Fed tightens monetary policy soon, gold will hit the lowest level since the beginning of the year.

Inflation in May 2021 reached a 13-year record high even though the US economy was just beginning to recover. When the largest economy in the world recovers quickly, the huge amount of money pumped out over the past year will push up commodity prices very strongly.

Gold price

At the end of the week, spot gold price was 1,775 USD / oz. Gold futures price in August 2021 on Comex New York was 1,792 USD / oz, while on Kito, the spot gold price was from 1,778.4 to 1,779.4 USD/oz.

World gold price was about 50.8 million VND / tael, which is 6.3 million VND lower than the domestic gold price.

The domestic gold prices decreased in line with the world gold prices. In Hanoi, SJC gold price decreased by 300 thousand VND / tael on both selling and buying sides, to 56.35 – 56.97 million VND / tael.

Commodities and services

Vietnam’s cashew industry

In the first 6 months of 2021, Vietnam's cashew nut exports increased by 22.2% in volume and by 11.1% in value over the same period in 2020. It is forecast that cashew nut exports will continue to grow positively in the last 6 months of this year thanks to strong demand from key markets such as the EU and the US.

Preliminary statistics shows that Vietnam's cashew export in June 2021 is estimated at 60,000 tons, with a turnover of 377 million USD, up 43.8% in volume and 46.1% in value compared to June 2020. In the first 6 months of 2021, Vietnam's cashew exports are estimated at 274 thousand tons, with a turnover of 1.65 billion USD, up 22.2% in volume and up 11.1% in value over the same period last year.

According to statistics from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's cashew exports in May 2021 reached 52.8 thousand tons, with a turnover of 324.5 million USD, up 9% in volume and up 13.1% in value compared to April 2021. Generally, in the first 5 months of 2021, Vietnam's cashew nut exports reached 214.4 thousand tons, with a turnover of 1.274 billion USD, up 17.2% in volume and 3.8% in value compared to the same period in 2020.

In the first 5 months of 2021, Vietnam mainly exported cashew nuts to the US, China and the Netherlands, accounting for 55.6% of total exports. In particular, cashew nut exports to the US market decreased by 8.3% in volume and by 25.1% in value compared to the same period in 2020; on the contrary, cashew nut exports to China increased by 76.4% in volume and 94.5% in value. The Netherlands’ imports of cashew nuts from Vietnam increased by 18.4% in volume but decreased by 18.6% in value over the same period in 2020.

In addition, cashew nut exports to some markets such as Canada, Russia, Japan, and UAE also increased in the first 5 months of 2021 compared to the same period in 2020.

Cashew

 

Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade

Compiled by VietnamCredit

Categories
Vietnam Economy

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