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Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 20 – 2021)

Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 20 – 2021)

Wednesday 26, 05 2021

Vietnam’s macro-economic overview

The domestic economy continued to show signs of recovery when all macro-economic indicators recorded positive developments. According to statistics of the General Department of Customs, foreign trade activities in April 2021 witnessed significantly higher results than expected. In parrticular, export turnover in April 2021 reached 26.6 billion USD, higher than the previous estimate of 25 billion USD while import turnover also reached USD 27.8 billion, much higher than the estimate of USD 25.9 billion. With this development, the total export turnover of goods in the first 4 months of 2021 reached a record high of 104.9 billion USD, up 29.6% over the same period last year. Thus, the trade balance in the past 4 months continued to maintain a surplus of 1.63 billion USD. In the context that the Covid-19 epidemic is still complicated, this result is achieved thanks to the FTAs ​​that Vietnam has signed, and the increase in prices of a number of commodities in the world market as global consumer demand has recovered.

Export Import

Despite the growth in macroeconomics and business activites, in the coming months, Vietnam’s economy is forecast to face many risks and pressures. In particular, the main influencing factor is the unpredictable development of the Covid-19 epidemic in Southeast Asia in general and the 4th Covid-19 outbreak in Vietnam in particular. In addition, increasing inflationary pressure is also becoming more and more evident in the face of the simultaneous increase in prices of goods and the positive prospect of a global economic recovery, while in In the domestic market, gasoline prices have continuously increased in recent periods. This will put pressure on the operating policies of the management agencies.

Weekly financial - monetary situation and forecasts

Exchange rate

In the past week, the USD / VND exchange rate decreased on both official and unofficial markets. At VCB, compared to the previous week, the exchange rate of USD / VND decreased by 30 VND / USD on the buying side to 22,910 VND / USD (purchased) and by 10 VND / USD on the selling side to 23,150 VND / USD, respectively. Compared to the beginning of 2021, the USD / VND has decreased by 50 VND / USD.  

On the unofficial market, the USD / VND exchange decreased by 360 VND / USD on the buying side and by 330 VND / USD on the selling side, to 23,220 VND / USD and 23,300VND / USD, respectively.

Exchange rate

At the State Bank of Vietnam, the USD / VND exchange rate was stable at 23,125 VND / USD, which is 738 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price. Compared to the previous week, the USD exchange rate on the selling side increased by 10 VND / USD to 23,813 VND / USD and was 50 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price.

Meanwhile, the central exchanged rate announced by the State Bank applicable to May 13, 2021 was 23,168 VND / USD, down 10 VND / USD compared to the rate announced the previous week.

Gold price

The world gold price increased due to the weakening USD and geopolitical tension in the Middle East. In the long term, gold is forecast to continue to rise. Unpredictable developments in global financial markets in the short term could trigger a large safe-haven move. The US Federal Reserve (FED) is likely to continue maintaining its ultra-loose monetary policy in the next few months, so inflation will increase, which is beneficial for gold.

However, the recovery of major economies will hold back the rise in gold prices. World economic growth is forecasted to increase to 5% in 2021 because economic growth of the two largest economomies, the US and China, is expected to reach 6.2% and 8.2%, respectively. The EU GDP growth is expected to reach 4.3% in 2021.

Gold price

At the end of the week, spot gold price was 1,821 USD / oz. Gold futures price in June 2021 on Comex New York was1,828 USD / oz, which is an increase of 42.6 USD / oz (2.4%).

World gold price was about 51.8 million VND / tael, which is 4.3 million VND lower than the domestic gold price.

The domestic gold prices saw an increase in the past week. In Hanoi, SJC gold price increased by 270 thousand VND / tael on the buying and selling sides, to 55.70 – 56.07 million VND / tael.

Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade

Compiled by VietnamCredit

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