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Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 16 – 2021)

Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 16 – 2021)

Monday 10, 05 2021

Vietnam’s macro-economic overview

Along with good macroeconomic indicators, Vietnam also recorded positive growth in foreign trade activities. Export continues to be one of the most important drivers in Vietnam's GDP growth rate.

According to the General Department of Vietnam Customs, in the first quarter of 2021, export turnover reached 78.4 billion USD, increasing by 23.7% over the same period last year while import turnover increased by 26.8% to 75.6 billion USD. It means that Vietnam saw a trade surplus of nearly 2.8 billion USD. This contributes significantly to increasing Vietnam’s foreign currency reserves, stabilizing the macro-economy, creating a driving force for the expansion of production and business as well as attracting domestic and foreign investment.

Vietnam’s macro-economic overview

In the following quarters, export is expected to be one of the two most important drivers in boosting GDP growth beside public investment, which help Vietnam achieve its 6.5% growth target for 2021. However, in order for export activities to be truly sustainable and make effective use of commitments in FTAs, the domestic manufacturing and processing sectors still need to improve product quality, and innovate trade promotion process to meet international demands.

Weekly financial - monetary situation and forecasts

Exchange rate

In the past week, the USD / VND exchange rate decreased on the official and unofficial markets. At VCB, compared to the previous week, the exchange rate of USD / VND decreased by 20 VND / USD to 22,950 VND / USD (purchased) and 23,160 VND / USD (sold), respectively. Compared to the beginning of 2021, the USD / VND has decreased by 30 VND / USD.  

On the unofficial market, the USD / VND exchange rate decreased by 150 VND / USD on both buying and selling sides, to 23,650 VND / USD and 23,700VND / USD, respectively.

Exchange rate

At the State Bank of Vietnam, the USD / VND exchange rate was stable at 23,125 VND / USD, which is 771 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price. Compared to the previous week, the USD exchange rate on the selling side decreased by 22 VND / USD to 23,846 VND / USD and was 50 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price.

Meanwhile, the central exchanged rate announced by the State Bank applicable to April 15, 2021 was 23,200 VND / USD, down 21 VND / USD compared to the rate announced the previous week.

Gold price

In general, the world gold price seemed to remain stable compared to the previous week. Global economic recovery has hampered the rise in gold prices.

Published data shows that in March 2021, consumer prices in the US reached eight-and-a-half-year peak. The dollar fell to a 3-week low and investors feared that US inflation would escalate in the near future.

It is forecasted that gold price will decrease even when the stock market drops. There is no sign showing that cash flow has entered the gold market in the context that investment funds are still promoting to sell. In the long term, gold is expected to increase due to rising inflation.

Gold price

At the end of the week, spot gold price was 1,739 USD / oz. Gold futures price in June 2021 on Comex New York wasstable at 1,741 USD / oz. On the Kitco trading exchange, gold prices were 1,736.2 – 1,737.2 USD / oz.

World gold price was about 49.4 million VND / tael, which is 5.9 million VND lower than the domestic gold price.

The domestic gold prices also experienced a decrease. In Hanoi, SJC gold price decreased by 50 thousand VND / tael on both selling and buying sides, to 54.85 – 55.27 million VND / tael.

Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade

Compiled by VietnamCredit

Categories
Banking & Finance

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