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Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 13 – 2021)

Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary update (Week 13 – 2021)

Friday 02, 04 2021

Vietnam’s macro-economic overview

On the financial market, credit has been growing in line with the economic recovery trend. As of March 12, 2021, credit growth of the banking industry had increased by about 0.95% compared to the end of 2020, higher than the 0.78% increase at the end of January 2021. It is forecasted that by the end of the first quarter of 2021, credit growth will have reached about 1.5-2%. This growth rate was higher than that in the same period last year. In particular, capital of banks mainly flowed into manufacturing, trade and service up sectors. For the priority sectors, credit increased by 0.05% in high technology, and by 2.24% in supporting industries. In the following quarters, credit is expected to grow faster thanks to the positive performance of economic activities and greater credit demand. However, the growth rate of credit in the coming time still depends significantly on whether or not the Covid-19 epidemic is under good control.

In terms of foreign trade, despite being negatively impacted by the Covid-19 epidemic, which hindered the delivery of goods and interrupted many supply chains, since the beginning of 2021, Vietnam's exports of goods have experienced a good growth thanks to the free trade agreements that Vietnam signed.

Vietnams macro-economic overview

According to statistics released by the GSO, Vietnam's merchandise export turnover in March 2021 reached 28 billion USD, increasing by 38.6% over the previous month and by 16.7% compared to March 2020. This was attributed to the increase in export volumes of key commodities such as seafood, furniture, textiles, footwear, computers and electronic products. The total export turnover of goods in the first quarter of 2021 was estimated at 76.7 billion USD, up 21.1% over the same period last year. In contrast, import turnover in March 2021 was estimated at 27.5 billion USD, up 31.1% over the previous month and 24.5% over March 2020. With this result, Vietnam enjoyed a trade surplus of 2.1 billion USD in the first quarter of 2021.

Weekly financial - monetary situation and forecasts

Exchange rate

In the past week, the USD / VND exchange rate increased on both the official and unofficial markets. At VCB, compared to the previous week, the exchange rate of USD / VND increased by 10 VND / USD on both buying and selling sides, to 22,960 VND / USD and 23,170 VND / USD, respectively. Compared to the beginning of 2021, the USD / VND has decreased by 20 VND / USD.  

On the unofficial market, the USD / VND exchange rate increased by 130 VND / USD on the buying side and increased by 120 VND / USD on the selling side, to 23,970 VND / USD and 24,020VND / USD, respectively.

Exchange rate

At the State Bank of Vietnam, the USD / VND exchange rate was stable at 23,125 VND / USD, which is 790 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price. Compared to the previous week, the USD exchange rate on the selling side increased by 20 VND / USD to 23,865 VND / USD and was 50 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price.

Meanwhile, the central exchanged rate announced by the State Bank applicable to March 25, 2021 was 23,218 VND / USD, up 19 VND / USD compared to the rate announced the previous week.

Gold price

The world gold price increased despite the dollar's escalation and the fall in bond yields. The sharp increase in gold prices was also due to the decline in most of world stock markets after a long period of increase. Besides, the US economy was warned to still be at risk, and the US Treasury Department is planning to increase corporate tax by 28%.

According to the US Department of Commerce, orders for durable goods fell by 1.1% in February 2021, compared with a 3.5 percent increase in January 2021. This is also the first decrease in the last 9 months.

At the end of the week, spot gold price was 1, 865 USD / oz. Gold futures price in April 2021 on Comex New York was1,864 USD / oz. On the Kitco trading exchange, gold futures price for April was 1,730.8 USD / oz.

Gold Price

World gold price was about 49.1 million VND / tael, which is 6.5 million VND lower than the domestic gold price.

The domestic gold prices experienced the opposite trend compared to the world gold prices. In Hanoi, SJC gold price decreased by 100 thousand VND / tael on both selling and buying sides, to 55.15 – 55.57 million VND / tael.

Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade

Compiled by VietnamCredit

Vietnam Economy

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