Vietnam’s macro-economic overview
There have been several positive developments in the Vietnamese economy. As of November 12, 2020, it had been 71 days without Vietnam recording new Covid-19 cases in the community. Meanwhile, the economy continued to recover with the sharp improvement in production and business activities, and the lowest lending interest rate in recent years.
In this context, the Resolution on the 2021 socio-economic development plan, which was passed by the National Assembly on November 11, has set economic target for 2021. For example, the gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to increase about 6%, GDP per capita to be about 3,700 USD / person and the average consumer price index (CPI) to be about 4%. The resolution of the National Assembly states that the year 2021 is of particular importance. Meanwhile, it is forecasted that there will be intertwined opportunities, advantages, disadvantages and challenges, of which the Covid-19 pandemic continues to negatively affect many aspects of the economy. Therefore, in 2021, the general goals set by the National Assembly are to control the epidemic and protect people's health; recover the economy on the basis of maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation; and strongly promote economic restructuring associated with the innovation of growth model.
Thus, although there are still many concerns about the impacts of the Covid-19 epidemic on the "health" of the global economy if there is no effective vaccine in time, the growth target of 6% shows the determination of the authorities to recover the economy after successfully controlling the Covid-19 pandemic.
In the past week, the USD / VND exchange rate remained stable in the official market but decreased in the unofficial market. At VCB, compared to the previous week, the exchange rate of USD / VND stayed unchanged, at 23,060 VND / USD (buying side) and 23,270 VND / USD (selling side). Compared to the beginning of 2020, the USD / VND exchange rate on the selling side has increased by 40 VND / USD (equivalent to an increase of 0.17%).
In the unofficial market, the USD / VND exchange rate decreased by 10 VND / USD on the buying and by 20 VND / USD on the selling side, to 23,200 VND / USD and 23,230 VND / USD, respectively.
At the State Bank of Vietnam, the USD / VND exchange rate was stable at 23,175 VND / USD, which is 708 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price. Compared to the previous week, the USD exchange rate on the selling side decreased by 13 VND / USD to 23,833 VND / USD and was 50 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price.
Meanwhile, the central exchanged rate announced by the State Bank applicable to November 12, 2020 was 23,187 VND / USD, down 13 VND / USD (equivalent to a decrease of 0.06%) compared to the rate announced the previous week. Since early 2020, the central exchanged rate has been adjusted to increase by 14VND / USD (equivalent to an increase of 0.06%).
The domestic supply and demand of foreign currency remains quite favorable and the USD / VND exchange rate will remain stable in the short term. However, the epidemic developments and the prolonged post-election political crisis of the US are still the biggest risks to the global foreign exchange market, including Vietnam.
World gold prices fell due to the fact that there has been Covid-19 vaccine. China's gold reserves were unchanged in October 2020, suggesting that China's buying trend has stalled since the end of last year. Besides, several central banks simultaneously net sold gold in the previous quarter. This also caused this metal to lose its momentum.
However, gold is still forecasted to rebound in the context of the dollar facing a rather gloomy outlook as the US Federal Reserve (FED) continues its super-loosening monetary policy and the US Government boosts economic stimulus. In addition, the US is expected to face a big political crisis.
At the end of the week, spot gold price was 1,866 USD / oz, which was a decrease of 43 USD / oz (equivalent to an increase of 2.25%) compared to last week. Gold futures price in December 2020 on Comex New York was 1,862 USD / oz, down 47 USD / oz (equivalent to a decrease of 2.46%) compared to the previous week. On the Kitco trading exchange, spot gold prices were at 1,864.60 - 1,865.60 USD / oz, down 38.8 USD / oz (equivalent to a decrease of 2.03%) compared to the previous week.
World gold price was about 52.7 million VND / tael, which is 3.6 million VND lower than the domestic gold price.
Domestically, the price of gold has decreased. Specifically, at SCB, gold price decreased by 100 thousand VND / tael bought and sold.
Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade
Compiled by VietnamCredit