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Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary situation (Week 42 – 2020)

Friday 16, 10 2020
Vietnam’s weekly financial - monetary situation (Week 42 – 2020)

Vietnam’s macro-economic overview

Along with the recovery in manufacturing activities in the US, China and many Asian and European economies, the production activities in Vietnam has also made substantial progress thanks to the increasing number of export orders.

According to IHS Markit statistics, Vietnam's PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) in September 2020 reached 52.2 points, much higher than the 45.7 point in August. This marks the highest level of this index since July 2019. In particular, the decrease in the number of Covid-19 cases has boosted demand, thereby increasing the number of new orders. In the coming time, maintaining a positive trend of production activities will depend mainly on the control of the Covid-19 pandemic.

In the Government’s regular meeting in early October 2020, the Prime Minister requested to speed up the economic recovery process to ensure the country's GDP growth comes at 2.5 – 3% in 2020. This growth rate is considered to be satisfactory, and believed to be achieved if exports and disbursements of public investment continue to be positive in the fourth quarter of 2020, and if the Covid-19 epidemic is still well controlled. 
Vietnam’s macro-economic overview
Particularly in the first 9 months of 2020, by overcoming the negative effects caused by the Covid-19 epidemic, the Vietnamese economy was technically successful with GDP growth of 2.12%. It is expected that with the efforts and solidarity of the entire political system, people and businesses, the domestic economy will overcome difficulties and achieve better results in the last 3 months of 2020.

Weekly financial - monetary situation and forecasts

 

Exchange rate

In the past week, the USD / VND exchange rate increased in the official market while it fluctuated heterogeneously in the unofficial market. At VCB, compared to the previous week, the exchange rate of USD / VND increased by 20 VND / USD (equivalent to an increase of 0.09%) on both buying and selling sides to 23,080 VND / USD (buying side) and 23,290 VND. VND / USD (selling side). Compared to the beginning of 2020, the USD / VND exchange rate on the selling side has increased by 60 VND / USD (equivalent to an increase of 0.26%).
Weekly financial - monetary situation and forecasts
In the unofficial market, the USD / VND exchange rate has been stable at 23,200 VND / USD (buying side), but decreased by 20 VND / USD to 23,230 VND / USD (selling side).
At the State Bank of Vietnam, the USD / VND exchange rate was stable at 23,175 VND / USD, which is 724 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price. Compared to the previous week, the USD exchange rate on the selling side decreased by 10 VND / USD to 23,849 VND / USD and 50 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price.

Meanwhile, the central exchanged rate announced by the State Bank applicable to October 8, 2020 was 23,203 VND / USD, down 10 VND / USD (equivalent to a reduction of 0.04%) compared to the rate announced the previous week. Since early 2020, the central exchanged rate has been adjusted to increase by 30 VND / USD (equivalent to an increase of 0.13%). 

In the global market, the USD dropped against most of other major currencies last week. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures USD fluctuations against six major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF) was at 93.62 points, down 0.36 points from the previous week. The USD fell against the EUR and GBP, CAD, and SGD, whereby 1 EUR was equal to 1.17728 USD; 1 GBP equal to 1,29466 USD. USD / CAD exchange rate decreased by 0.37% as USD 1 was equal to CAD 1.32445. On the contrary, the USD / JPY exchange rate increased by 0.52%, where 1 USD was equal to 105,989 JPY. The exchange rate of USD / CNY increased by 0.01%, and 1 USD was equal to 6.79082 CNY.

The dollar fell due to instability in the US market. The United States is currently facing many problems including the Covid-19 epidemic which is still complicated, and geopolitical instability before the presidential election taking place on November 3.

Gold price

World gold prices fell after the US President Donald Trump had called for an end to discussions on the economic stimulus package in the US Congress. The decision to stop negotiations on the bailout package made by the US President Donald Trump causing a dramatic fall in gold prices was only a short-term negative impact. In the long term, gold prices are forecasted to increase again due to a large amount of money being pumped into the markets recently and in the near future.

At the end of the week, spot gold price was 1,886 USD / oz, which was a decrease of 16 USD / oz (equivalent to a decrease of 0.7%). Gold futures price in December 2020 on Comex New York was 1,887 USD / oz, down 6 USD / oz (equivalent to a decrease of 0.3%) compared to the previous week. On the Kitco trading exchange, spot gold prices were at 1,886.80 - 1,887.80 USD / oz, down by 0.2 USD / oz (equivalent to a reduction of 0.01%) compared to the previous week.

Domestically, the price of gold has increased. Specifically, in Hanoi, SJC gold price increased by 20 million VND / tael on the buying side and increased to 55.65 - 56.17 million VND/ tael on the selling side.

Source: Ministry of Industry and Trade
Compiled by VietnamCredit

Categories:
Vietnam Economy

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