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Vietnam’s coffee industry status and forecast

Vietnam’s coffee industry status and forecast

Tuesday 08, 06 2021
A brief insight into Vietnam’s coffee industry in the first five months of 2021

Coffee export decrease

According to the General Department of Customs, the amount of coffee exported in April 2021 was 132,111 tons, equivalent to 246.387 million USD, decreased by 22.1% in volume and 21% in turnover compared to the same period in 2020.

Coffe Export

In the first four months of the year, coffee exports reached 584,981 tons, worth 1,055 billion USD, decreased by 14.3% in volume and 8.3% in value compared to the same period in 2020.

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, reduced consumer demand, unfavorable customs clearance activities, and the Suez Canal congestion incident in March 2021 have slowed down the coffee transport process of Vietnam to European and US markets.

Coffee price fluctuates

Due to changes in the world’s market, the coffee price in Vietnam also experienced fluctuation.

According to the Import-Export Department (under the Ministry of Industry and Trade), in the first quarter of 2021, the price of Robusta coffee in the domestic market fluctuated unevenly. At the end of January 2021, the price of Robusta coffee was at 31,500 VND/kg, then increased to 33,100 VND/kg at the end of February 2021, but decreased to 32,900 VND/kg at the end of March 2021. In April 2021, the domestic price of coffee increased to the highest level of 33,700 VND/kg, up 3.7% compared to the end of March 2021.

Robusta coffee

On May 25th, the coffee price was in the range of 31,900 - 32,800 VND/kg. The domestic coffee price remained unchanged and tended to increase slightly. The market is forecasted to be active again when the shipping fee is lowered, causing exports to bring a large amount of coffee in stock to the market.

The Import-Export Department also reported that the price of coffee on the exchanges in May showed signs of reversing, the price of coffee on the two largest exchanges in the world decreased simultaneously. Due to the complicated developments of the COVID-19 epidemic, many markets are still implementing social distancing, demand has fallen sharply, causing inventories to increase.

Forecast of the coffee market

Although coffee prices decreased, in general, in the first four months of 2021, coffee export prices still increased more than in the same period last year. In particular, in the first three months of 2021, the average export price of coffee reached 1,801 USD per ton, increased by 6.8% compared with the same period in 2020.

The COVID-19 epidemic is causing many difficulties for coffee exports since the main market for Vietnam's coffee exports is the EU, which is currently facing the COVID-19 epidemic, so purchasing power has decreased and is very difficult to predict in the near future. Statistics show that Vietnam's coffee exports to the markets of Germany, Italy, Russia, Spain, Belgium, and the United States decreased sharply.

According to the Department of Agricultural Product Processing and Market Development, coffee export volume in the first four months of 2021 reached 563 thousand tons and 1.02 billion USD, decreased by 17.6% in volume, and 11.6% in value compared to the same period in 2020. Germany, Italy, and Japan continue to be the three largest coffee-consuming markets of Vietnam in the first three months of 2021, with market shares of 14.7%, 8.1%, and 7.2% respectively.

Japan Coffee

In 2020, Japan's coffee imports reached US$1.18 billion, decreased by 5.5% compared to 2019. Japan's coffee imports from Vietnam in 2020 increased by 17.3% compared to 2019, reaching 169 million USD. Vietnam's coffee market share accounted for 14.33% of Japan's total import value, up 2.77 percentage points from 11.56% in 2019. In the context of coffee exports to the EU and US markets decreasing, Vietnam's coffee industry has well exploited the Asian markets, including the Japanese market, which is expected to continue to grow.

In an optimistic view, the Department of Agricultural Product Processing and Market Development forecasts that the global segment of high-quality instant coffee will tend to increase due to a significant increase in the need to work from home since the outbreak of COVID-19. However, currently, exporting coffee to the EU and US markets is still facing difficulties due to the lack of shipping containers. Although less stressful than before, the freight rates are still high. Industry experts forecast that in the coming time, Vietnam's coffee exports will still face many difficulties.

Compiled by VietnamCredit

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