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Vietnam’s coffee export price in an uptrend

Vietnam’s coffee export price in an uptrend

Friday 10, 12 2021
In the final month of 2021, Vietnam’s coffee price is predicted to increase immensely. Coffee export is anticipated to be more favorable and will speed up soon, aiming for an export value of 6 billion USD by 2030.

Vietnam’s coffee exports in ten months of 2021

In the first ten months of 2021, coffee exports to major markets such as the EU, the US, Algeria, the Philippines, etc., decreased compared to the same period in 2020. On the contrary, exports to some potential markets such as Japan, Russia, China, Korea, etc., increased again.

The EU continues to be Vietnam's largest coffee consumption market, accounting for 36.0% of the total coffee export volume in the ten months of 2021, reaching 463.4 thousand tons, worth 840,3 million USD, down 13.8% in volume and 2.8% in value over the same period in 2020.

The EU

In which, exports to most markets decreased compared to the same period in 2020. Exports to Germany were down 0.6%, Italy down 11.7%, Spain down 35.9%, Belgium down 25.9%, etc., in volume over the same period in 2020. Along with the EU, exports to the UK market also decreased by 5% in volume and 0.3% in value to 24.6 thousand tons, equivalent to 44.3 million USD.

The main reason for the decrease in exports to European markets is due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, difficulties in transportation, and products that have not met increasingly stringent requirements in terms of quality and consumer trends.

Coffee exports to the US market reached 107.9 thousand tons, worth 214.8 million USD, down 10.9% in volume and 0.3% in value over the same period in 2020. In addition, coffee exports to Algeria decreased by 14.2% in volume over the same period in 2020, reaching 46.4 thousand tons; to the Philippines decreased by 29.2% in volume, reaching 46.0 thousand tons.

Exporting coffee to major markets such as the US and EU faces many difficulties due to high freight charges, and the shortage of empty containers still exists. Thus, companies have boosted exports to other potential markets. Export volume to Japan increased by 1.9%, Russia increased by 12.1%, China by 43.3%, Korea increased 11.1%, etc., in volume over the same period in 2020.

Coffee export price in an uptrend

In November 2021, Vietnam's coffee exports continued to decline, even though export prices tended to recover. According to estimated data, coffee exports in November 2021 reached 78 thousand tons, worth 181 million USD, down 21.4% in volume and 16.5% in value compared to October 2021; decreased by 6.9% in volume and increased by 12.6% in value compared with November 2020. In which, the average export price is estimated at 2,327 USD/ton, up 6.3% over the previous month and up 20.9% compared to November 2020. In the first 11 months of 2021, the export of this item is estimated at 1.364 million tons, worth 2.634 billion USD, down 4.4% in volume and up 5.9% in value compared to 2020. The average export price reached 1,931 USD/ton, up 10.7% over the same period last year.

coffee exports

According to statistics of the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's coffee exports in October 2021 reached 99.2 thousand tons, worth 217.3 million USD, down 1.1% in volume and up 3.5 % in value compared to September 2021; increased by 7.9% in volume and 28.0% in value compared to October 2020. In general, in the first ten months of 2021, the export of this product reached 1,286 million tons, worth 2.453 billion USD, down 4.2% in volume and up 5.4% in value over the same period in 2020.

Forecast

In the final month of 2021, Vietnam’s coffee price is predicted to rise high, in the context that coffee harvesting season has just begun in Vietnam, providing abundant supply. According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, the 10-year cycle of the coffee industry is returning. Coffee prices are forecast to peak at the end of the year.

The world’s coffee demand in the coming time will be high, while the global supply of coffee most possibly will come to a temporal halt since weather conditions will hinder the production of the largest coffee-producing country in the world – Brazil.

Therefore, with the support of incentives from new-generation FTAs, it is forecast that Vietnam's coffee exports will soon accelerate again, aiming for an export value of 6 billion USD by 2030.

 

Top 10 Vietnam’s coffee exporting companies

(First ten months of 2021)

Top 10

 

Source: The Ministry of Industry and Trade

Compiled by VietnamCredit

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