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Scenarios in 2023 for Vietnam’s tourism industry

Scenarios in 2023 for Vietnam’s tourism industry

Friday 23, 12 2022
A medium growth scenario is deemed most likely to happen for Vietnam's tourism industry in 2023.

Vietnam’s tourism industry in 2022

According to the General Department of Tourism, in 2021, 95% of travel businesses in Vietnam stopped operating, and 35% of travel businesses applied to withdraw their business licenses. 90% of tourist accommodation establishments were closed, and the annual average room capacity of the entire system of tourist accommodation establishments is only 5%.

In 2022, more than 70% of accommodation establishments have returned to normal operation. Room occupancy on weekends is around 40%-50%, and on holidays around 70%.

The recovery prospect for companies in the tourism sector is becoming more visible as the number of businesses returning to operation increases sharply. 2,362 enterprises returned to operation in the accommodation and catering services sector; the number in the employment and tourism services is 2,215.

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In 2022, a series of high-class resorts and modern entertainment areas in tourist destinations officially went into operation, demonstrating their ability to overcome difficulties and belief in a quick recovery of Vietnamese tourism enterprises.

It should be noted that one of the main reasons for the boom in domestic tourism is because of the inability to travel during the pandemic period. The average number of domestic tourists per year in the three years from 2020 to 2022 is 85 million, slightly lower than the figure for 2019 – the year before the pandemic. From those numbers, it can be inferred that if there had been no pent-up need for travel due to the pandemic, Vietnam’s tourism would be unlikely to reach the current number of visitors.

Three growth scenarios for 2023

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Along with the reopening of tourism, in 2022, many conferences and seminars on tourism development after Covid-19 have been held. Many forecasts and calculations about the recovery rate and development scenarios for Vietnam's tourism have been made. The general assessment affirms that the pandemic in Vietnam has been well controlled, and the socio-economy has been recovering and developing rapidly, including the tourism economy. But Vietnam tourism is also facing many difficulties and challenges.

The year 2023 will still be difficult for Vietnam's tourism industry. New challenges such as the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the impact of the global economic recession, the increasingly fierce competition among destinations in the same region, several important markets of Vietnam's tourism not ready to open, etc., will have a significant impact on the tourism industry.

According to the Vietnam National Administration of Tourism, in 2022, on average, each international visitor spends about 2.9 million VND/day; Domestic tourists spend 1.2 million VND/day.

In the next few years, the spending capacity of tourists (both international and domestic) will not increase after Covid-19, however, the spending capacity will gradually increase as the economy recovers, people's incomes are improved, and when tourism services are more diversified with higher quality, etc.

Based on analyzing the domestic and international context, the Vietnam National Administration of Tourism has proposed three development scenarios for Vietnam's tourism, including low, medium, and high growth scenarios. Specifically, the medium growth scenario is preferred because of its highest feasibility.

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Accordingly, the goal is that by 2025, Vietnam's tourism will fully recover as before the pandemic (welcoming 18 million international arrivals and domestic tourists reaching 116 million). Due to the increasing competition between countries in the field of tourism, the tourism industry needs more strategies to attract visitors, such as loosening visa policies, promoting the destination to international friends, and good management in tourist destinations to create a beautiful image of Vietnam.

It is forecasted that in 2023 and the following years, tourism activities in the world and Vietnam will gradually recover and develop again. Although the opportunity for international tourist flows has come, travel is very convenient, the world economy is facing many crises, people's incomes are affected, and the fear of the epidemic is still there. Therefore, the ability of people to travel is still limited.


Compiled by VietnamCredit


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