According to Mr. Nguyen Xuan Quang - Deputy Director of the National Center for Socio-Economic Information and Forecast - NCIF (under the Ministry of Planning and Investment), the economic leading sectors of Vietnam in 2022 will be classified into five specific groups.
The first group will be construction and construction materials. Mr. Quang stated that Vietnam is focusing on promoting public investment on a nationwide scale, which will lead to an increase of focus on infrastructure construction, innovation, and digital development. Therefore, the demand for building materials will tend to increase.
The second group will be those industries with a large proportion of exports, such as electronics, textiles, seafood, wood and wood products, rubber, iron, steel, food, etc., since the world consumption and demand will be higher, resulting in equivalent import demand. That will be an opportunity for Vietnam to boost exports.
The third group will be the beverage, retail, and aviation industries. These industries will recover as there will be increased domestic demand.
The fourth group will be e-commerce and logistics since the Vietnamese are changing their consumption habits. Online shopping is also being promoted in the context of COVID-19.
The final group will be the manufacturing and processing industries, resuming its role as the lead growth-driven factor.
Experts agreed that the group of processed industrial products including steels; other machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts; wood and wood products, textiles and garments, shoes of all kinds, continued to play an important role, contributing to the overall export growth of the country when accounting for 86.1% of the country's total export turnover.
Assoc. Prof Ph.D. Dinh Trong Thinh commented that in 2022, the processing and manufacturing industry would continue to lead Vietnam’s economic growth. Product groups of phones and accessories; computers, components, and electronic products; machinery and spare parts; textile; leather shoes; wood and wood products; iron and steel, etc., will continue to play a key role for Vietnam's exports to set a new record.
Mr. Tran Thanh Hai - Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department (under the Ministry of Industry and Trade), said that to take advantage of this opportunity, Vietnam needs to focus on key products and goods that have export advantages, especially high-tech goods such as phones and phone components; computers, electronic products and components, and other machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts.
“In 2022, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is and will continue to implement many solutions that the ministry has focused on in the past time to support businesses, thanks to new-generation FTAs such as CPTPP, EVFTA, UKVFTA to promote exports.” Mr. Hai informed.
Economist Dr. Nguyen Duc Do - Deputy Director of the Institute of Economics - Finance stated that GDP growth in 2022 could reach 8%, exceeding the target set by the National Assembly.
Explaining the reason why growth is expected at this optimistic figure, Dr. Nguyen Duc Do emphasized that with the current recovery rate, GDP in the first quarter of 2022 could grow by about 6%, while the in 2022 can reach more than 8% thanks to several industries that will recover strongly in 2022, especially service industries such as tourism, aviation, restaurants, hotels, etc. Besides, growth GDP in 2022 only has to compare with the low growth of 2021.
Dr. Nguyen Duc Do said that the forecast of GDP growth of 6-6.5% given by the Ministry of Planning and Investment is "quite cautious." Many economic experts also affirmed that the GDP growth momentum in 2022 will break through because Vietnam has changed its strategy in COVID-19 prevention and control.
Assoc. Prof-Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh also optimistically predicts that GDP growth in 2022 will be between 7-7.5%, thanks to the rebound of many industry groups that have been suppressed for a long time.
Although relatively cautious, Dr. Can Van Luc - a member of the National Monetary and Financial Policy Advisory Council, also said that with the appropriate change in anti-pandemic strategy and rapid vaccination progress, economic recovery in 2022 is forecasted to have an impressive result, reaching a growth rate of about 6.5-7%.