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Financial - monetary situation in Vietnam as of September 2020 and forecast for the coming months.

Financial - monetary situation in Vietnam as of September 2020 and forecast for the coming months.

Thursday 03, 09 2020
Compared to early 2020, the USD / VND exchange rate has increased but has yet to show a positive sign.

The general situation in Vietnam

In the past month, the USD / VND exchange rate was considered stable on the official market but showed signs of increasing in the free market. At VCB, compared to the previous month, the USD / VND exchange rate is stable, with 23,060 VND / USD when buying and 23,270 VND / USD when being sold. Compared to early 2020, the USD / VND exchange rate when sold has increased by 0.17%, with more than 40 VND / USD difference.
 
On the unofficial market, the USD / VND exchange rate increased by 20 VND / USD in both buying and selling directions, up to 23,180 - 23,210 VND / USD.
 
At the State Bank of Vietnam, the buying rate of USD was stable at 23,175 VND / USD, 729 VND / USD lower than the ceiling price. Compared to the previous week, the USD exchange rate on the selling side increased by 8 VND / USD, up to 23,854 VND / USD, and lower than the ceiling price of 50 VND / USD. Meanwhile, the central rate announced by the State Bank, applicable to August 27, 2020, is 23,208 VND / USD, an increase of 8 VND / USD (equivalent to an increase of 0.03%) compared to the rate announced last week, compared with early 2020, the central rate has been adjusted to increase 35 VND / USD (equivalent to an increase of 0.15%). With the applicable band of +/- 3%, the ceiling rate that banks applied on August 27, 2020, was 23,904 VND / USD and the floor rate was 22,512 VND / USD. USD / VND exchange rate was stable due to stable supply and demand, and high foreign exchange reserves. According to estimates, Vietnam's trade surplus in the first 8 months of 2020 will reach $10.89 billion.
 
 The general situation in Vietnam

 

Table 1: The selling price of some foreign currencies at commercial banks

Interest rates:

In the past month, although the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) did not conduct any transactions on the open market, it continued to buy in large amounts of foreign currency. The liquidity of commercial banks is still very abundant, but the interest rates on the interbank are decreasing.
 
As of August 25, 2020. The average interbank interest rate decreased for the overnight, 2-week and 9-month terms with reductions of 0.19% / year, 0.31% / year and 3.48% / year, respectively.
 
 Interest rates

Table 2: Average interbank interest rate
 

  • Home loan interest rate

 
Home loan interest rates in Vietnam are still being evaluated at a high level.
 
At VIB, the preferential home loan interest rate for the first 6 months is 8.5% / year; in 12 months at 10.1% / year. After the preferential period, the interest payable is based on the 12-month savings interest rate plus a margin of 3.9% / year. In summary, home loan interest rates at VIB will fluctuate at 11.5-11.7% / year.
 
 
At TPBank, the preferential home loan interest rate in the first 3 months is 6.5% / year; The first 12 months is 9.5% / year. When the offer ends, the interest rate is calculated based on the 12-month term savings interest rate plus the amplitude of 3.5% / year, which is fluctuating at 11.6-12% / year.
 
At Sacombank, the fixed home loan interest rate is 11% / year in the first year, then the interest rate is calculated by the 13-month savings interest rate plus the amplitude of 4.7% / year, the loan is calculated as 12.5% ​​/ year.
 
In banks with state capital, mortgage interest rates are somewhat lower. At Vietcombank, the preferential home loan interest rate for 12 months is 7.7% / year; 24 months is 8.4% / year and 36 months is 9.2% / year. After the preferential period, the Bank calculates 24-month savings interest rate plus a margin of 3.5% / year. Vietcombank's mortgage interest rate after 36 months is about 10.5% / year.
 
Compared with domestic banks, foreign banks apply quite competitive lending rates for home loans. For example, Hong Leong Bank applied the interest rate of 6.75% / year for the first 6 months; 7.75% / year for the first 12 months, and 8% / year for the first 24 months, then the interest rate is calculated based on the base rate plus a margin of 1.5% / year, which is about 10.4% / year. However, loan conditions for home loans at foreign banks are somewhat stricter, especially the proof of income, not just as collateral.

The general situation in the world

Last week, the dollar fell against most of the major currencies in the world currency basket. The US economy received mixed information, causing the dollar to fall sharply.
 
According to the US Census Bureau, the value of core durable goods and general durable goods orders in this country in July 2020 followed the rise of the previous month, up 2.4% and 11 respectively, 2%, outperforming the 1.9% and 4.4% increase expected.
 
US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the fluctuation of USD with 6 major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF) at 92.8 points. Specifically: USD decreased against GBP, JPY, SGD, and CNY, accordingly: 

  • 1 GBP was exchanged for 1,32144 USD;

  •  USD / JPY decreased 0.04% to 1 USD for 105,985 JPY 

  • The exchange rate of USD / SGD decreased by 0.34%, 1 USD for 1,36572 SGD 

  • USD / CNY exchange rate decreased by 0.54%, USD 1 changed to CNY 6.88063.

 
 The general situation in the world
Table 3: Rates of some major traded currencies in the world
 

Translated by Vietnam Credit

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