According to the report, the overall credit demand of customers in the last 6 months of 2022 was considered higher than in the first 6 months of 2022 and higher than the same period in 2020 and 2021. However, it was still lower than the last 6 months of 2019. In general, in 2022, credit institutions believe that the overall credit demand of customers was higher than in 2021 but did not reach the expected level.
“Credit demand is forecasted to continue to increase in the first 6 months of 2023 and the whole year of 2023 for all fields, objects, currencies and maturities. In particular, the short-term credit demand is forecast to be higher than that of the medium and long term; demand for loans in VND is higher than in foreign currencies,” the report said.
There are 5 sectors that are assessed to have the highest credit demand in 2022, including: Processing and manufacturing industry; Import-export trading; Housing; Investment in logistics services; Investment in transportation and warehousing. Notably, the demand for credit for investment and tourism business is assessed to have recovered strongly in 2022.
“In 2023, the manufacturing and processing industry is expected to have the highest credit demand, followed by the construction sector, transportation and warehousing investment and import-export business," said the State Bank.
Similar to 2021-2022, it is expected that in the first half of 2023 and the whole year of 2023, economic growth, investment, export and import opportunities, interest rate movements, changes in investment demand in production and business, customers' consumption, improved service quality and changes in lending interest rates are factors that are forecasted to positively affect the increase in credit demand of corporate customers.
The report also added that credit risk for short-term loans has been slower than the credit risk of medium and long-term loans. It is forecasted that in the next 6 months and in 2023, credit institutions are concerned that the overall credit risk will continue to increase slightly in most fields except for lending for development of agriculture, forestry and fishery, investment loans for high-tech applications, loans for investment in supporting industries, loans for processing and manufacturing industries.
In fact, in the first 6 months of 2023, 71.3% of credit institutions expect to remain the same; 16.1% of credit institutions expect to tighten and 12.6% of credit institutions expect to "relax" overall lending terms and conditions for corporate customers and individual customer.
In particular, credit institutions believe and expect to mainly tighten requirements for collateral, additional terms in credit contracts, and minimum credit rating requirements and credit lines to ensure safety; while continuing to make efforts to narrow the gap between lending interest rates and average cost of capital for production and business lending activities to support the economy.
In the first 6 months of 2023 and the whole year of 2023, wholesale and retail, export and import, lending for living needs and production of food and are expected to be the credit growth drivers of the system.
Compiled by VietnamCredit