SSI Research has just released its estimated business results for the third quarter of 2022 of 26 companies. In particular, profits of banks are forecasted to see strong growth in the third quarter despite interest rate hikes putting pressure on NIM.
Accordingly, VCB is going to be the most profitable bank according to. SSI Research estimates. The bank’s profit is expected to reach VND 7.4~7.6 trillion, up 29~33% y/y, which is driven by credit growth and deposit balance growth of 15 % and 3.5% compared to the beginning of the year.
Estimated profit for 2022 and 2023 is VND 34 trillion (up 23% y/y) and VND 41 trillion (up 21% y/y) respectively.
Coming out second is BID whose pre-tax profit is expected to reach about VND 6 trillion, up 120% y/y, driven by credit and deposit balance growth of 10.5% and 2% YTD, respectively, and NIM was stable QoQ.
BID's pre-tax profit growth will continue to remain strong in the last 6 months before slowing down in the first 6 months of 2023. Currently, BID's pre-tax profit forecast for 2022 is VND 21.2 thousand billion (up 56% over the same period).
As for ACB, it is expected that the loan balance and deposit balance of this bank will increase slightly QoQ due to the new credit limit granted by the State Bank from the beginning of September. The reversal of provisions will not be as large as in the first 2 quarters. Therefore, the profit before tax in the third quarter of 2022 may reach VND 4.7~4.9 trillion (up 80~87% over the same period). NPLs are controlled below 1%, while outstanding loans for restructuring loans tend to decrease.
While the profit forecast for 2022 of this bank is left unchanged at VND 17 trillion (up 41% y/y), SSI revised down its pre-tax profit forecast for 2023 to VND 19 trillion (up 15% y/y) to reflect a flat NIM rate next year.
For TCB, it is forecasted that pre-tax profit will grow by about 20~25% over the same period due to pressure of increasing capital costs and less diversified income sources compared to previous periods.
While there is confidence in the long-term prospects of Vietnam's real estate industry and TCB, potential regulatory changes at the moment are likely to create some disruption to the growth trajectory of the industry as a whole and TCB in particular - especially in the short term. For 2023, the bank is forecasted to experience pressure on both NIM and NPL ratios.
As for TPB, the bank's profit before tax in the third quarter of 2012 is estimated at VND 2.1 trillion (up 54% over the same period). With limited credit growth, NIM and NPL ratio will be somewhat under pressure during this period.
According SSI, outstanding loans to value chains in the real estate sector (including construction, real estate development and home loans) accounted for about 29% of total credit. This figure does not include the outstanding debt of corporate bonds of real estate investors.
For MBB, growth in credit and deposit balances was estimated at 17% and 8% y/y respectively at the end of September. NIM in the first 8 months improved by 20 bps, but may decrease slightly in September after the SBV raised policy rates and deposit rates continued to escalate. Accordingly, pre-tax profit in 9 months is expected to reach about VND 18~18.5 trillion (up 50~60% over the same period).
MBB is expected to continue to be granted more credit lines by the State Bank than other banks in 2023. As a result, the bank will be able to achieve solid pre-tax profit growth at 18%. compared with the same period.
HDB's pre-tax profit in the third quarter of 2022 is estimated at VND 2.7 trillion (up 47% y/y), with high credit growth at 18% y/y and bad debt is controlled.
SSI maintains the bank's pre-tax profit estimates for 2022 and 2023 at VND 10.2 trillion (up 27% y/y) and VND 12.6 trillion (up 23% y/y), with the expectation that the relatively high credit limit compared to other banks will partly offset the tightened NIM in 2023.
VIB's pre-tax profit is expected to be about VND 2.7 trillion (+100% y/y) in the third quarter of 2022, and VND 7.8 trillion (+46% y/y) in the first 3 quarters, reaching 74% of the plan set out by the General Meeting of Shareholders. Pre-tax profit for 2023 is expected to increase by 8.2% year-on-year to VND 11.3 trillion.
SSI Research also expects MSB to record a pre-tax profit of VND 1.4 trillion (+40% y/y) in the third quarter of 2022, compared to a low base in the third quarter of 2021.
It is estimated that MSB will achieve pre-tax profit of VND 6 trillion (up 18.3% YoY) and VND 6.7 trillion (up 12% YoY) in 2022 and 2023, respectively. It should be noted that the estimate has excluded VND 1.8 trillion of profit from divestment from FCCOM.
Source: SSI, vneconomy
Compiled by VietnamCredit